\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 262 Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Company performance: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.93 billion yuan, yoy + 17.0%, and recorded a net profit of 800 million yuan, yoy + 9.5% (after deducting non net profit yoy + 9.9%). The company’s revenue growth was in line with expectations, but the net profit growth was lower than expected, mainly due to the higher expense. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy + 5.4%, and recorded a net profit of 120 million yuan, yoy-23.5%, yoy-20.6% after deduction.
Anesthesia products grew rapidly, and the income of psychotropic drugs decreased due to the impact of centralized purchase: benefiting from the rapid growth of fentanyl products and new oxycodone products and the recovery of midazolam and other old products, the revenue growth of the company’s anesthesia line in 21 years is estimated to be close to 50%; It is estimated that the downward trend of psychotropic drugs continues in the first half of the year, mainly due to the impact of intensive collection of duloxetine and aripiprazole; It is estimated that the nerve line decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of gabapentin centralized mining.
The short-term profit is affected by the increase of expenses, but it is optimistic about the follow-up volume of the company’s anesthesia line products: the net profit of the company, especially the net profit of Q4 in a single quarter, is lower than expected, mainly because the company vigorously promotes the sales of sufentanil, oxycodone and newly listed alfentanil, the short-term sales expenses increase more, and a number of innovative drugs of the company enter the clinic one after another, R & D expenses also gradually increased, dragging down the growth of net profit. At present, aripiprazole, gabapentin and other varieties of the company have been successively included in the centralized mining, and the influence margin of centralized mining has weakened. Driven by new products, the company’s anesthesia line has been increasing continuously. We are optimistic about the gradual acceleration of the company’s subsequent performance.
Profit forecast: we expect the company to realize a net profit of 980 million yuan and 1.24 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023 respectively, with yoy increasing by 22.9% and 26.1% respectively, and EPS of 0.97 yuan and 1.23 yuan respectively, corresponding to 14 times and 11 times of PE respectively. Despite the impact of expenses in the short term, the follow-up anesthesia line income continues to be expected. We are optimistic about the follow-up development of the company. The current valuation of the company is low, and we maintain the “buy” investment proposal.
Risk warning: the impact of purchasing with quantity exceeds expectations; The launch and sales of new products are less than expected, and the R & D progress is less than expected
