\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 001 Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
The company issued a 21 year performance express, which achieved a revenue of 14.78 billion yuan, yoy + 43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 4.31 billion yuan, yoy + 21%, in line with the previous notice. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 4.26 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy + 50%, QoQ + 31%, and net profit attributable to parent company of 940 million yuan, yoy + 51%, qoq-1.5%. As a world-renowned vitamin supplier, the company has made innovations in the fields of nutrition, flavors and fragrances, polymer and other new materials, and has made efforts to build a platform for "chemical +" and "biological +", to enrich product lines and develop functional chemicals. The company has released new production capacity of several projects in the follow-up, and it is expected that the company's profit will further increase, so it is rated as "interval operation".
The volume and price of products increased simultaneously, and the performance increased steadily: the performance of the company increased, mainly due to the volume and price of vitamin E, methionine and other products. In 2021, the average prices of domestic VA, VE and methionine were 315, 80 and 20 yuan / kg respectively, yoy which were - 20%, + 24% and + 2% respectively. In Q4 single season, the average prices of domestic VA, VE and methionine are 286, 89 and 20 yuan / kg respectively, yoy which are - 3%, + 51% and + 19% respectively. At the same time, the capacity of the company's phase II 100000 ton methionine plant was released, and the company's performance was greatly improved. In the follow-up, the supply and demand pattern of VE is still good, the VA price is at the bottom, and it is expected to reverse in the follow-up. The 150000 ton project of Shandong methionine phase II is expected to be put into operation in 23 years, which will further promote the company's performance.
Announcement of azabicyclic patent of covid-19 oral drug intermediate: on February 11, the company's azabicyclic patent was announced that azabicyclic can be used to produce Pfizer covid-19 oral small molecule drugs. With the help of the original product isopentenol, the company has arranged the industrial chain of "isopentenol caronic anhydride azabicyclic". At present, the 500 ton azabicyclic project is under application for approval. After breaking through the industrial production technology of azabicycles, the company is expected to enter the field of covid-19 oral drugs, with great development potential in the future. The company insists on innovation. Based on its own "chemical +" and "biological +" platforms, it constantly updates its product types, grows rapidly and can be expected in the future.
The new projects have been put into production one after another to ensure sustained growth of their performance: in recent years, the company is committed to building the platform of "chemical +" and "bio +", and continuously enriches the product line, including three major editions, including nutrition, flavor and fragrance, and polymer new materials. In terms of nutrition, the company's vitamin B6 and B12 projects will be put into operation within this year, which is expected to cover the whole category of vitamin monomers, and help the company become a one-stop manufacturer of nutrition and a provider of combined solutions; Shandong methionine phase II project is expected to be put into operation in 2023. After the new methionine project cooperated by Ningbo and Sinopec is put into operation, the company's methionine leading position will be further consolidated. Flavor and fragrance section, the company's Shandong base 40 thousand tons of flavor and fragrance project steadily advancing, of which 10 thousand tons of menthol is expected to be put into operation in the year. In addition, based on the polymerization process and downstream application research and development of high-performance resin, the company also develops new materials including PPS and adiponitrile nylon industrial chain, which is expected to become a new profit growth point of the company in the future. Based on the vitamin industry, the company attaches importance to independent R & D and innovation, continues to extend and expand to relevant industrial chains, and forms a functional chemical leading enterprise with multi industry coordination and industrial chain integration. With the continuous production of new production capacity in the future, the company's performance will continue to grow.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit of 5.11/6.14 billion yuan, yoy + 19% / + 20%, equivalent to EPS of 1.98/2.38 yuan in 2022 / 2023. At present, the PE corresponding to the share price of A-Shares is 17 / 14 times, which is rated as "interval operation".
Risk tips: 1. The price of the company's products is lower than expected; 2. The progress of the project under construction is less than expected.
