\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
The process of nationalization was good, and the rating of "overweight" was maintained
In 2021, the revenue was 6.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.9%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.084 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; Among them, the operating revenue of 2021q4 was 1.418 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, mainly due to the good growth of Guangdong market, and the net profit attributable to the parent before and after deduction was 197 million yuan and 119 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 82.3% and 17.7%. As the annual performance of 2021 slightly exceeded the expectation, the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company from 2022 to 2023 was raised to RMB 1.573 billion and RMB 2.008 billion (the previous value was RMB 1.492 billion and RMB 1.910 billion), and the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 2024 was increased by RMB 2.491 billion. The EPS from 2022 to 2024 were RMB 3.93, RMB 5.02 and RMB 6.23 respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE was 43.7, 34.3 and 27.6 times. In the medium and long term, the company is optimistic about the national market expansion space and profitability of the company, and maintains the "overweight" rating.
The process of nationalization is good, and the market outside the province is expanding rapidly
(1) in terms of products, energy drinks increased by 41.6%, of which 500ml large gold bottles increased by 62.8%, the proportion increased by 9.8pct to 72%, 250ml small gold bottles increased by 3.3%, the proportion decreased to 12.2%, and canned products are expected to decrease by 6.8%, the proportion decreased to 8.6%. (2) From the perspective of provincial industrialization, the growth rate decreased to 94.7% in the national market, accounting for 29.7% in the sub region. The markets outside the province grew rapidly, and the markets in Guangxi, East China, central China and southwest China increased by 39.5%, 79.1%, 44.3% and 39.5% respectively. There is still a large space for deep cultivation and sinking of channels. (3) The number of channel outlets expanded to 2.09 million, more than doubled, and the number of dealers increased by 712, a year-on-year increase of 44.5%.
The annual net interest rate increased slightly
In 2021, the net profit margin increased by 0.72 PCT and the gross profit margin under the same caliber increased by 0.51 PCT, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of large gold bottles and the decrease in the cost of PET bottles. Among them, the sales expense rate and management expense rate of the same caliber increased by 1.9pct and decreased by 0.10pct, mainly due to the increase of 1PCT in publicity and promotion expenses (including about 100 million in listing and promotion expenses) and 0.6pct in employee salary.
It is expected to maintain rapid growth throughout the year
Channel research shows that the current payment collection situation is good, and the trend of making a good start is basically established. Looking forward to the whole year, it is expected to maintain rapid growth outside the province, steady growth within the province, and steady decline in the cost rate. The company is in the golden stage of national expansion, and its profitability still has great room for improvement in the long run.
Risk tip: the risk of slow market expansion outside the province, the risk of failure in new product development, and the risk of uncertain pattern
