Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) (002434)
Event: the company plans to acquire 51% shares of Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) energy held by the controlling shareholder Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) group and some natural persons. Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) energy is deeply engaged in flexible power regulation business. At present, the core assets are four power generation side energy storage power stations with a total installed capacity of about 40mW.
comment:
Software R & D + hardware application establish technical barriers to ensure the profitability of the company. In terms of software, the company has developed a panoramic simulation decision-making system to realize timely and accurate prediction of system demand, superimposed optimal scheduling and collaborative control to maximize revenue; In terms of hardware, the company relies on the integration ability of energy storage system to realize reliable control and operation of energy storage system. In addition, the company has accumulated rich operation experience and abundant customer resources by participating in spot transactions in the national power market. Double barriers of technology and market, and establish a solid moat.
Signed orders have increased nearly 20 times. At present, the company has signed an agreement, and the proposed installed capacity is 700MW, an increase of 16.5 times compared with the current one. According to the national plan, the installed capacity of new energy storage will exceed 30GW by 2025. Under the background of clean energy, we expect that the actual projects will far exceed the policy planning.
Policies promote the development of power spot market and auxiliary service market. In May this year, the two ministries and commissions issued the notice on further improving the pilot work of power spot market construction. First, further expand the scope of spot pilot, and add 6 pilot provinces and cities on the basis of the original 8 pilot provinces and cities. At the same time, accelerate the construction of FM and standby auxiliary service market, and gradually promote the diversion of auxiliary service fees to the user side. From the auxiliary service market, the average annual market capacity of FM, peak shaving, standby, black start and other subdivided services is at the level of one million to ten million KW. Benefiting from the promotion of policies, the expansion of transaction scope and clear charging methods, the overall Chinese market is expected to accelerate its development.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company to achieve revenue of 7.25, 8.62 and 10.11 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, 18.8% and 17.3%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.1, 9.3 and 1.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, 31.1% and 31.3%. The corresponding P / E ratio of the current market value is 32.6x, 24.8x and 18.9x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the risk that the progress of asset acquisition is less than expected; Risk that car sales are less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; New energy vehicle business development is less than expected risk, etc.
