Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) (300601)
The exclusive variety quadruple seedling has obvious advantages, and the substitution rate of single seedling is expected to continue to improve. Silian vaccine is the exclusive product of the company. It combines DPT vaccine and Hib vaccine, and can complete the immunization procedure of single vaccine 4 + 3 injections with 4 injections, which has obvious advantages. In recent years, the issuance volume of quadruple seedling batches has increased steadily. In 2020, the sales volume will reach 4.32 million, realizing a sales revenue of 1.362 billion yuan. Starting from 2020, quadruplex seedlings will be upgraded from Xilin bottles to pre filled bottles, and the product unit price will be increased from 270 yuan to 370 yuan. According to the estimation of 14 million new-born population, the current vaccination amount of quadruple vaccine is less than 8%. With the continuous improvement of the substitution rate of quadruple vaccine for single vaccine, the vaccination rate of quadruple vaccine will increase steadily, and the neutral forecast sales peak is expected to reach about 3 billion yuan. The advanced product of quadruple vaccine, Wulian vaccine, has been approved clinically. The company has strong strength in the field of quadruple vaccine and is expected to maintain a good competitive advantage.
Heavy variety 13 price pneumonia vaccine is on the market, and the market space is broad. In September 2021, the company's 13 valent pneumonia vaccine was successfully listed and issued in the first batch in October, becoming the third 13 valent vaccine manufacturer in China. 13 valent pneumonia vaccine is a heavyweight variety with global annual sales of US $6 billion. It entered China in 2017. The batch issuance of this variety has increased rapidly in recent five years, reaching 10.89 million in 2020. According to the estimation of 14 million new-born population, the current vaccination rate is 18%, which is still far behind that of about 70% in developed countries. The price of the company's products is about 460 yuan / piece, which has an obvious price advantage compared with Pfizer's 700 yuan / piece and Watson's 600 yuan / piece. The company's products are expected to start in large quantities next year. The competition pattern in the next three years is good, and the neutral forecast sales peak is expected to be nearly 4 billion yuan.
R & D strength is strong, and the production of human diploid crazy seedlings is reported. Over the years, the company has maintained a high proportion of R & D investment. In 2020, the R & D investment reached 273 million yuan, accounting for 12% of the operating revenue, and the number of R & D personnel reached 425. It has mastered a number of advanced biological vaccine core technologies at home and abroad, and has the R & D and production capacity of virus vaccine, bacterial vaccine, genetic engineering vaccine, conjugate vaccine, multi linked multivalent vaccine, etc, It has a leading edge in the R & D and production of multi linked and multivalent vaccines. At present, the company has more than 30 projects under research, of which one product is in the production reporting stage and four products are in the phase III clinical stage. The company's application for listing diploid crazy seedlings has been accepted. It is expected to be listed next year and become the second manufacturer in China. At present, China's pet market is hot, and the demand for rabies vaccine continues to grow. In 2020, the number of batches issued reached 78.6 million. As the gold standard product of rabies vaccine, human diploid has gradually increased to 5% in batch issuance in recent years. At present, only Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) one company is produced and sold, and the market pattern is good. With the gradual substitution of human diploid crazy seedlings for traditional crazy seedlings, the company's products are expected to achieve rapid volume after listing, and the neutral predicted sales peak is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan.
Covid-19 vaccine contributes performance flexibility, and overseas market expansion can be expected. The company's covid-19 inactivated vaccine was approved for emergency use in China in May and began to be vaccinated successively in June. It is expected to contribute about 1 billion sales revenue to the company in the first three quarters. The product has started overseas phase III clinical in June and is expected to be officially listed and exported overseas after phase III is completed next year. The designed production capacity of covid-19 inactivated vaccine is 200 million pieces / year. According to the net profit estimation of 15 yuan / piece, when the sales volume reaches 100 million pieces, it can contribute 1.5 billion net profit. At the same time of independent research and development, the company also carried out strategic cooperation with AstraZeneca and obtained the R & D, production and commercialization license of adenovirus vector covid-19 vaccine in China and the commercialization license in Pakistan and Indonesia. In early November, the product was approved for emergency use in Indonesia, faster than the market expectation, and has begun to realize commercial export. At present, the basic immunization rates in Indonesia and Pakistan are about 42% and 34%, and there is still much room for improvement. The designed production capacity of adenovirus vector covid-19 vaccine is 200 million pieces / year. According to the net profit estimation of 10 yuan / piece, it can contribute 1 billion net profit when the sales volume reaches 100 million pieces. In recent three years, the sales of covid-19 vaccine is expected to contribute a large performance increment to the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating. Considering the impact of covid-19 vaccine, we predict that the company's net profits attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.551 billion, RMB 2.746 billion and RMB 3.107 billion respectively. Regardless of covid-19 vaccine, we predict that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 786 million, RMB 1.390 billion and RMB 1.847 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.14, RMB 2.02 and RMB 2.69 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 97.6 / 55.2 / 41.6 times respectively. It is recommended for the first time and given a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: industry policy risks; Uncertainty risk of vaccine batch issuance; Risk that the progress of product R & D and listing is less than expected.
