Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005)
Key investment points:
Deep cultivation of high nickel ternary cathode, rapid growth into a high nickel leader. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) was established in 2014. At the beginning of its establishment, it integrated the industrial resources of China and South Korea cathode material industry, and has a high development starting point. The company firmly laid out the high nickel ternary system and became the first cathode material enterprise in China to realize the mass production of ncm811. Since 2017, the market share of high nickel cathode in China has ranked first. From 2017 to 2020, the company's ncm811 series material shipments grew rapidly, with CAGR reaching 140%, and the proportion of high nickel shipments increased from 16% in 2017 to 82% in 2020. With the rapid growth of downstream new energy vehicle sales, the improvement of capacity utilization and the rebound of raw material prices, the company's performance increased significantly. In q1-q3 in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.251 billion yuan (YoY + 167%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 549 million yuan (YoY + 384%).
The short-term recovery of lithium iron phosphate does not change the general trend of ternary high nickel. In the short term, due to the decline of subsidies and the switching of lithium iron version of some high-end models brought by CTP / blade battery technology, combined with the growth of sales of A00 models, the recovery trend of lithium iron phosphate battery is obvious. In the medium and long term, considering the space for energy density improvement, the space for long-term cost reduction and the comprehensive recycling value of the battery, there is still much room for the development of ternary battery. We expect that in the future, the new energy vehicle market will show a market pattern in which ternary cathode dominates the long-life medium and high-end passenger vehicle market and lithium iron phosphate cathode expands its market share in the short-life medium and low-end passenger vehicle market. According to Xinlu information data, China high nickel (8 series + NCA) penetration rate has increased from 13% in 2019 to 23% in 2020. It is estimated that China's high nickel penetration rate is expected to reach 40% in 2021. Under the process of high nickel, the process complexity and technical barriers of positive electrode have increased; the integrated layout of leading positive electrode enterprises through the layout of precursors, nickel cobalt lithium resource terminal and battery recovery will increase the cost difference among enterprises. We expect that there will be no significant difference between enterprises With the high nickel content, laisan cathode industry will usher in the improvement of concentration, and the leading companies with technical advantages and cost advantages will benefit the most.
The company has many advantages, and the leading position of high nickel is stable. (1) Compared with competitors in the same industry, the company has the earliest layout of high nickel positive electrode, the earliest mass production time, fast product iteration speed, and the overall level is 1-2 years ahead of its peers. At present, the company has the material technology and product reserve capacity of ni90 series NCM and NCA, as well as NCM, NCA and NCMA above ni90. Relevant products can be applied to columns, soft bags, squares and the next generation of full / semi-finished products Solid state batteries, including 46800 large cylindrical batteries with higher energy density and lower cost. (2) By the end of 2020, the positive electrode capacity of the company was 40000 tons, and the high nickel capacity took the lead in China. The company accelerated the expansion of high-quality high nickel capacity, and the high nickel positive electrode capacity will increase to more than 300000 tons by 2025. In order to effectively digest the new capacity, the company adhered to the key customer strategy and increased the depth of cooperation with customers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , honeycomb energy and ski. (3) Low production line investment intensity + precursor integration + battery recovery, multi-path comprehensive cost reduction, which is expected to drive the improvement of gross profit margin.
Profit forecast: with its rapidly expanding production capacity, high-quality customer base, precursor integration and technology R & D advantages, the company has a solid leading position in high nickel. In the future, the company will benefit from the growth of positive track, the improvement of high nickel permeability and the improvement of single ton profit. We predict that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 817 million yuan, 1536 million yuan and 2388 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 3.43 and 5.33 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 71.5/38.1/24.5 times respectively. The company will be given a "recommended" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: risk of raw material supply and price fluctuation; Risk that downstream demand is less than expected; Market competition intensifies and exceeds the expected risk; Risk of changes in industry technology route.
