Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345)
Revenue grew steadily and net profit continued to improve. In 2015, due to the sluggish consumer demand, the growth rate of the company's revenue declined and the profit margin decreased. In 2016-17, the consumption boom increased, and the company's revenue growth and profit margin rebounded to varying degrees. In the past 17 years, the environmental protection supervision became stricter, and the cost and price of packaging materials and transportation rose sharply. Some small enterprises have been closed, and the market share has concentrated to the leader. In the past 18 years, we focused on launching new crayfish products, raising prices and alleviating cost pressure. In 19, the company hedged the rising pressure of pig prices by raising prices and adjusting formulas, and launched an equity incentive plan to bind the interests of the team. The epidemic situation in 20 years stimulated the demand for C-end home, and the company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations. In the past 21 years, the demand of business supermarket channels was strong and the pressure of rising costs was superimposed. The company's performance was lower than expected in the second quarter. Under the scale effect of 17-20 years, the sales expense rate and R & D expense rate continued to decline.
Product development adopts follow-up strategy to continuously develop new products. The company follows the new product R & D concept of "timely follow-up, continuous improvement and appropriate innovation". Because there are few competitors for new products, the price comparison phenomenon is not obvious, and the pricing is often relatively high. In 18 years, the company launched "Honghu temptation" crayfish series products and maruzhizun series products; In 19, the company launched lock fresh 1.0 series products; In the past 20 years, the company launched fresh lock 2.0 series products. Household hot pot products are upgrading, and the consumption upgrading trend is obvious. In particular, lock fresh products have explosive growth under the catalysis of the epidemic. Prefabricated dishes are another growth curve of the company. Mr. frozen products is determined to become the standard setter of Chinese food, cut into the 100 billion track of prefabricated dishes, and there is a huge space for development.
From coastal to inland infiltration. The company is short of capacity and the production line is operating at full capacity. The company's capacity utilization rate remains above 100% throughout the year, and the capacity can not meet the market demand. Continue to promote the strategy of "selling real estate" and further enhance the advantage of "origin research". At present, the company takes East China as the base market and northeast and North China as the key markets to further develop other regional markets such as South China, central China and southwest. By the end of 2020, the company's design capacity was 578300 tons. The fixed increase project will add 762500 tons of capacity in total, laying the foundation for the company's development in the next five years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as a medium and high-end product, fresh lock products comply with the consumption upgrading trend. With the recovery of supermarket channels, 21q3 fresh lock products have resumed growth. We expect that the sales of fresh lock products will continue to grow steadily in the future. Prefabricated dishes are the key category of the company. There is a large market space in China. AndI has competitive advantages in management, channel and brand. We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.99/3.93/5.25 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 62.92/47.88/35.83 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
Stock price catalyst: product price increase; The price of raw materials decreased; Performance exceeds expectations, etc.
Risk factors: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations; Capacity expansion is less than expected; Food safety accidents.
