Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) (300782)
The third growth curve transmitter module will become the strongest tone of China's transmitter module: (1) Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) at present, the main transmitter module product l-pamif applied to 5g NR band has been successfully launched, in which the PA adopts GaAs process and the filter adopts IPD process. We judge Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) L-pamif will start shipping in the first half of next year, with a high gross profit margin. From shipment to profitability, it will exceed market expectations. (2) Looking forward to the future, the 4G transmitter module pamid integrating duplexer, filter and PA has been proofed and tested in 2022, and we will pay close attention to the progress of this product. The RF transmitter module will open a broad space for Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , and the RF front-end platform company is beginning to grow.
The second growth curve RF receiver module is subject to the de inventory of the industry, but its leading position cannot be shaken, Waiting for large customer volume in 2022: (1) lfem: at present, the proportion of dual frequency has tended to increase, and the dual frequency volume will become a trend. (2) Diffem: at present, the rapid volume of OEM filters has supported a large number of shipments in 2021. In the future, the self built filter IDM will support further rapid volume of diffem. Considering that the competitive product manufacturers of this product are mainly overseas enterprises, we take a positive view on the future shipments. (3) LNA Bank: the core customers have made an important breakthrough, and the complete solution at the receiving end has been formed.
first (RF discrete devices) and the second growth curve are afraid of insufficient fluctuations in smartphone shipments: due to the high base caused by excessive stock in the supply chain after Huawei's sanctions in 2020, the year-on-year growth of the supply chain this year is under pressure. Taking Shun as an example, the shipment of mobile phone lens of Shun fell by 20% year-on-year for five consecutive months from June to October of 21, and the market is worried that the low outlook of smartphone will affect the company Adverse effects of. We believe that among the three factors of Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) performance growth (Smartphone shipment, share and single machine value), smartphone shipment is only a quarterly disturbance factor. The core driving force of Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) growth is still from discrete devices to filters, PA, 5g receiver modules, 4G receiver modules and 5g transmitter modules, from US $1 (discrete) to US $7 The value of single machine (discrete + module) increased, and the share of domestic substitution increased.
Profit forecast Valuation and rating: the company's share price fell sharply. As the first growth curve (discrete devices, switches / LNA) and the second growth curve (receiver module) are subject to the influence of smart machines, but the company's third growth curve has changed (future sales of transmitter module can be expected), we take a positive view of Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) The sales of transmitter modules in 2022 also take a positive view of the upward trend of the company's discrete devices and receiver modules after the reversal of the smartphone market. In the 150 billion yuan RF front-end market, Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) revenue accounts for only about 2%. We maintain Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 at RMB 2.22 billion, RMB 3.17 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, corresponding to PE of 51 / 36 / 28x respectively. We are still optimistic about the layout of Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) in China's RF front-end industry for a long time, continue to focus on recommendation and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the progress of key technologies is less than expected; Downstream domestic substitution demand is lower than expected.
