Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) (300724)
Key investment points
The company comprehensively arranges the route of high-efficiency cells: under the current situation that the route of TOPCON and hjt has not been determined which will be the route of the next generation of high-efficiency cells, Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) as a leading manufacturer of photovoltaic cells, comprehensively arranges the route of TOPCON and hjt. On the Topcon route, the company has the ability to provide LPCVD and tubular PECVD, the key equipment upgraded by TOPCON. In the hjt route, as the world's first leading manufacturer that can independently develop and provide the whole line equipment of the hjt route, the company has leading advantages in a number of equipment on the hjt route, and is expected to reduce the cost of heterojunction whole line equipment to less than 350 million yuan in the future.
Industrialization verification improves the company's competitiveness: the company's raised and invested projects include industrialization verification projects, that is, the company independently produces battery chips like battery chip manufacturers. Through the production of battery chips, it attracts auxiliary material manufacturers to jointly promote the reduction of battery chip comprehensive cost and the improvement of efficiency. At present, there is no whole line equipment that can realize industrialized production in the field of heterojunction in the market. Industrialized verification is helpful for equipment manufacturers and battery manufacturers to make joint efforts. At the same time, the equipment can be debugged timely and accurately according to the requirements of battery manufacturers to meet the needs of customers. Compared with perc battery production, hjt has the characteristics of simple production process. At present, most of the manufacturers cutting into the heterojunction field are new players. By building an industrialized verification production line, hjt can expand new battery manufacturers that enter the industry and do not have their own process ability.
Focus on customer needs and do a good job in selling shovels in the photovoltaic industry: as the shovels, the battery equipment supplier does not directly determine the technical route of the battery and the route choice of the battery manufacturer. As an equipment manufacturer, the most important thing is to launch equipment that meets the market demand according to the market demand and be a good helper for battery manufacturers. On the premise that the future technical route is not clear, manufacturers choose various routes and provide corresponding equipment, which not only solves the needs of customers, but also provides a strong driving force for the growth of the company.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.290 billion yuan, 7.082 billion yuan and 9.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.80%, 33.87% and 32.7% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 830 million yuan, 1.16 billion yuan and 1.767 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 58.7%, 39.8% and 52.3%. Considering the impact of the sharp rise in silicon price this year, the revenue recognized by battery manufacturers is slow, In the future, with the release of silicon production capacity, the profitability of battery manufacturers will recover. We are optimistic about the leading position of perc battery equipment manufacturers, the strategic layout in the field of hjt and TOPCON, and give a "buy-b" investment rating for the first time
Risk tips: the risk of declining photovoltaic installation, the risk of intensified market competition, the cost reduction of hjt equipment is less than expected, and the expansion of cell production is less than expected
