Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) (603908)
Event overview
On November 26, 2021, the company announced that the wholly-owned subsidiary Haikou Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) signed a capital increase agreement with Wuhan hot wilderness, and Haikou Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) subscribed 10% equity of hot wilderness with RMB 10 million. In addition, the company will appoint a senior manager as the director of Dahe wilderness.
Analysis and judgment:
Big hot wilderness is positioned as a campsite brand, and its core competitiveness lies in site selection. It is mainly engaged in experiential expansion activities and planning, campsite services and other businesses. At present, there are more than 20 campsites operating in China. At present, the company mainly provides standardized experience packages for camping fans, including afternoon tea, tent building experience, dinner, camp activities and breakfast, at a charge of 799 yuan / person; Consumers mainly include: (1) in the super destination represented by Sanya, women are the main group; (2) Most of the destinations around big cities are families, parents and children. About 60% of the traffic of big hot wilderness comes from xiaohongshu, and has reached a cooperation with the platform to jointly build outdoor camping categories. From January to October 2021, the operating revenue of big hot wilderness was 10.96 million yuan, the net profit was 102100 yuan, and the net interest rate was 1%.
According to our analysis, the capital increase is mainly due to the company's optimistic about the development of exquisite camping market, At present, the main factor limiting the development of camping is the supply of campsites (about 1900 campsites in China). This round of Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) capital increase on hot wilderness will be used for camp expansion and market operation. We analyze that the company's capital increase will effectively integrate downstream resources and realize upstream and downstream coordination. Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) After capturing the rise of exquisite camping trend in 2020, the company has made all-round transformation in design, material and operation, seized this opportunity, and has more cost-effective than foreign brands and more sense of design than Chinese brands.
Investment advice
In the short term, (1) In terms of export sales, Q3 is mainly affected by the base. We estimate that the order arrangement has reached 22h at present, and it is expected to maintain steady growth in the future; (2) In terms of domestic sales, the rise of refined camping after the epidemic is expected to drive the continuous high growth of tent sales. Damu increased by 147% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 21 years, and Q4 double eleven performed beautifully and more than doubled. In the medium and long term, the current domestic / export revenue accounts for 3:7, the future domestic sales revenue is expected to exceed half, and the superimposed net interest rate is expected to improve to more than 15%. Maintaining the profit forecast, the revenue is expected to be 9.5% in 2021-23 15 / 12.4/1.519 billion yuan, net profit attributable to parent company of 82 / 124 / 159 million yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.23/1.86/2.39 yuan, closing price of 35.76 yuan on November 26, 2021, corresponding PE of 29 / 19 / 15x in 21-23 years, maintaining "buy" rating and target price of 45 yuan (segment valuation gives industrial business of 22s 20x + brand business of 30x).
Risk statement
The sales of Damu were lower than expected; The epidemic situation affects the OEM export business; Systemic risk.
