China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) (601868)
It is proposed to establish a subsidiary of hydrogen energy business to build the whole hydrogen energy industry chain and integrated development platform
In order to seize the development opportunity of hydrogen energy industry, the company plans to invest 5 billion yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, China energy construction Hydrogen Energy Development Co., Ltd., whose business scope covers hydrogen energy production and marketing, investment and construction, R & D of relevant facilities and equipment, hydrogen fuel cell and storage and transportation, specifically including hydrogen production and sales; Research and development of hydrogen production equipment, design, integration, investment, construction, operation, technical consultation and engineering consultation of hydrogen energy and new energy; Hydrogen storage and transportation business; Design, integration, investment, construction and operation of hydrogenation station; Hydrogen energy application scenario development and related product equipment research and development; R & D, application and sales of hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen internal combustion engine, hydrogen gas turbine technology and related facilities and equipment, and hydrogen energy technology consulting, promotion and services; Import and export of hydrogen energy and related technical equipment.
At present, hydrogen production from coal accounts for more than 60%, and the green hydrogen market space is expected to reach 150 billion yuan in 2030
According to China Coal Industry Association, from 2016 to 2020, China's hydrogen energy output increased from 19 million tons to 25 million tons, CAGR + 8%. Among them, 62% of hydrogen is produced from coal, 19% from natural gas, 18% from industrial by-product gas and only 1% from electrolytic water. At present, the selling price of hydrogen is about 40 yuan / kg, corresponding to a market space of about 1 trillion yuan. According to the prediction of China National Energy Group, by 2030 / 2060, China's annual hydrogen demand is expected to be about 37 / 130 million tons respectively, accounting for about 5% / 20% of the terminal energy consumption, including 05 / 100 million tons of hydrogen production from renewable energy. We assume that the terminal price is 30 / 20 yuan / kg respectively, corresponding to a market space of 150 billion yuan / 2 trillion yuan.
It is expected to lead the development of the company's hydrogen energy business and expand and strengthen the hydrogen energy industry
According to the publicly disclosed information, the company's investment in hydrogen containing comprehensive energy project has been put into operation and participated in the design of several green hydrogen plants and the EPC of hydrogen refueling stations: 1) on June 22, 2021, the "light hydrogen storage heat" comprehensive application demonstration project in Zhangye City, Gansu Province invested and constructed by the company was officially started, with the shares of its CLP engineering, Gezhouba equipment company and Gansu Institute, It will mainly build hydrogen production and photovoltaic power stations from electrolytic water, build integrated filling stations for oil, electricity, gas and hydrogen, gradually introduce industries related to hydrogen production and use, and build a whole industrial chain project for hydrogen production; 2) Zhejiang Institute of the company is committed to the research work related to the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy utilization, and has participated in the implementation of several hydrogen energy projects, covering three aspects of hydrogen production, storage and transportation and application: it has completed the design of China's first domestic green hydrogen plant and the EPC of seven hydrogen refueling stations, including the country's first liquid hydrogen hydrogenation station, and is currently participating in the construction of two hydrogen electricity coupling projects. We believe that through the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, cneng hydrogen energy, China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) will give full play to the leading, investment driving and industrial traction of the headquarters, strengthen and expand the company's hydrogen energy industry, and accelerate the expansion of the company's new performance growth point.
Practice the "30.60" strategy, make rapid progress, and be optimistic about the company's short-term, medium and long-term development
The company issued the action plan for China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) practicing the "30.60" strategic goal (white paper) in June 21, focusing on the "one center" of the "3060" system solution and the "two basic points" of hydrogen energy and energy storage Carry out business transformation and propose to hold the installed capacity of new energy by 25 years and strive to exceed 20GW. From January to September, the company has signed several new energy investment strategic agreements, and the transformation of new energy investment and operation is expected to speed up; In the first three quarters, the company's newly signed contracts totaled 592.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, ranking first among the eight central construction enterprises. In the short term, the company's newly signed orders have increased rapidly, and the annual performance is expected to grow rapidly; In the medium and long term, the company's "1466" strategy is forward-looking and has three competitive advantages in management, project and technology. It is expected to accelerate the transformation of business model in the era of "new energy +".
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 303.1 billion yuan, 345.5 billion yuan and 391 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.11%, 14.02% and 13.17%. The net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.767 billion yuan, 9.603 billion yuan and 10.991 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.89%, 41.91% and 14.46%, corresponding to EPS of 0.16, 0.23 and 0.26 yuan. The current price corresponding to PE is 13.1, 9.3 and 8.1 times. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the establishment process of subsidiaries is not as expected; The development of hydrogen energy business was not as expected.
