Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) (002847)
Summary of this issue:
Investment suggestion: the market has doubts about Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) category cultivation and channel expansion. We believe that the company implements the multi category development strategy. Affected by the bulk start-up part, it is more a strategic choice to focus on the category layout or large single products first. Focusing on large single products under the product matrix is more in line with the company's characteristics. The successful cultivation of baking categories has preliminarily verified the company's category expansion ability. Through the benchmarking of direct marketing Ka, Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) is expected to form a certain brand advantage in key markets such as Hunan and Jiangxi, which is expected to accelerate the sinking of distribution channels, and there is also broad space for regional expansion. The company adopts the whole industry chain mode of independent production, and its profitability is guaranteed. The founder has focused on the rest food industry for more than 20 years, and the internal incentive is in place. In recent years, he has welcomed a number of well-known enterprise managers in the industry to join, which is expected to further improve the internal management power and the certainty of category cultivation and channel sinking. We expect diluted EPS to be 1.43, 2.40 and 3.46 yuan from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The successful cultivation of China Insurance bakery has preliminarily verified the category expansion ability, and deep-sea snacks are expected to take over the high growth. The company implements the multi category policy and arranges the competition routes where the competition pattern has not yet formed. At present, the company gradually focuses on the core large-scale products such as deep-sea snacks, bread and potato chips. In 2017, the company accurately grasped the trend and cut into the China Insurance baking track, with a revenue of RMB 680 million in 2020. The success of China Insurance baking categories preliminarily verified the company's ability to cultivate large-scale products, In the short term, the company launched deep-sea snacks (fish tofu in 2015) and spicy marinated snacks, which is expected to take over baking and achieve high growth. In the long run, the company's production side has accumulated for many years, and its new product launch ability continues to be verified. The quantitative packaging sector welcomes the strong joining of experienced Mr. Zhang Xiaosan, and is expected to make great progress.
Brand power promotes the deep cultivation of channels, and there is still a large space for regional expansion. Actively embracing new channels is expected to bring performance increment. Channel fragmentation has a certain impact on the company, but supermarkets are still the main battlefield of snacks. Facing the impact of channel fragmentation, the company has actively adjusted the focus of channel development from opening a good island to opening a big island to accelerating the sinking of BC stores in the waist and legs. We believe that the company has formed a certain brand strength in key provinces and cities such as Hunan and Jiangxi through many years of direct Ka tree benchmarking. The island in the store is the concentrated embodiment of the company's advantages and focuses on the core demand of one-stop purchase, Channel sinking has strong certainty. From the perspective of regional expansion, more than 70% of the company's revenue is concentrated in Central China, East China, South China and other regions, and there is still broad space for national expansion. On the new channel side, the company actively embraces emerging snack retail terminals such as busy snacks and wives, which is expected to bring incremental performance.
Stock price catalyst: the cultivation of new categories such as deep-sea snacks and spicy brine is smooth; The sinking and expansion of supermarket channels accelerated.
Risk factors: the expansion of new categories does not meet expectations; The cost of supermarket channels increased; The competition of Zhongdao model intensifies; Food safety issues.
