Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012)
In 2021, the application scale of mini LED display is expected to increase by 70% year-on-year. Large LED manufacturers such as San’an, Huacan, dinner party and dry lighting have expanded their mini LED production capacity. As a leading enterprise of mini LED equipment, the prosperity of its downstream industry will continue to 2023. In the long run, as a leading enterprise of semiconductor equipment in China, the company takes the lead in the technical reserve of high-end etching equipment in China, and will benefit from the promotion of domestic substitution for a long time. From the perspective of valuation, the company’s PS is expected to be about 22 times in 2022. As a leading etching equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and maintains the buy rating.
The demand for miniled is strong, and the expansion of chip enterprises will directly benefit the equipment end: with the rise of mobile phone, laptop, vehicle and even TV Mini LED applications, senior engineer expects that the scale of mini LED display applications is expected to increase by 70% year-on-year in 2021 and maintain a high-speed growth trend in 2022. Therefore, mainstream LED manufacturers have joined the queue of mini led capacity expansion, Among them, 7.9 billion yuan of San’an plus code is used for mini led capacity expansion, and Hc Semitek Corporation(300323) 1h21mini led capacity increases by 50%. Generally speaking, it is expected that the mini LED chip capacity of the industry’s leading enterprises will increase by more than 50% in 2022, which will directly benefit equipment enterprises. Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) 1h21 launched prismo Unimax MOCVD equipment specially designed for mass production of high-performance Mini LEDs, which can greatly increase production capacity and reduce costs, and will fully enjoy the development dividend of the industry. In addition to the mini led field, the third generation semiconductor materials represented by Gan also continue to drive the demand for MOCVD equipment, which will further boost the output scale of enterprises in the industry.
The net profit of 3q21 after deduction of non-profit increased rapidly: 1-3q21 company realized a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan and yoy increased by 40%; The net profit was 540 million yuan, an increase of 96% compared with yoy; Deduct non net profit of 170 million yuan, yoy increased by 462%. Among them, 3q21 achieved a revenue of 730 million yuan in a single quarter, yoy increased by 47%, and achieved a net profit of 150 million yuan, yoy decreased by 8%; Deduct non net profit of 103 million yuan, yoy increased by 221% and QoQ increased by 105%. The company’s overall profit scale and profitability to a higher level. In terms of gross profit margin, the comprehensive gross profit margin of 1-3q company was 42.7%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points over the same period of last year, and the gross profit margin of 3q21 was 43.3%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points over the same period of last year, with obvious improvement in profitability. Overall, the company’s revenue scale is still relatively small, but with the rapid growth of China’s semiconductor equipment demand, the company’s performance growth elasticity after deduction will be more obvious.
Profit forecast: 3.5 billion yuan of new orders were added in the first three quarters, with yoy increasing by more than 110%, including 1.6 billion yuan of new orders for 3q, a significant increase year-on-year. It is expected that with the promotion of mini LED equipment sales, the company’s revenue and profit scale will continue to increase rapidly in the next two years. We expect that the company’s revenue in 2021 and 2022 will be 3.2 billion yuan and 4.4 billion yuan respectively, yoy will increase by 39% and 38%, the net profit will be 710 million yuan and 960 million yuan, yoy will increase by 45% and 35% respectively, and the net profit after deduction is expected to be 270 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, yoy will increase by 1058% and 38% respectively, EPS is 0.35 yuan and 0.45 yuan respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to 102 times of PE in 2022, and PS is expected to be about 22 times in 2022. As a leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and gives a buy rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic has dragged down the growth of semiconductor equipment demand.
