Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786)
The world’s leading automotive controller supplier. Founded in Pudong, Shanghai in 2003, the company focuses on the field of automotive intelligent electronic control. It is a high-tech automotive electronic enterprise supported by the state. At present, there are five series and more than 100 varieties of products, such as lamp control, motor control, energy management, on-board electrical appliances and electronics. The company is the main supplier of light controller of Volkswagen Group. Its customers cover Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Ford, Renault, Nissan, Cummins, etc., and has established strategic cooperative relations with dozens of well-known semiconductor suppliers all over the world. In 2020, the revenue will reach 2.914 billion yuan, with lighting control system accounting for about 50%, motor control system accounting for about 19%, on-board electrical and electronics accounting for about 22%, energy management system accounting for about 2%, R & D expense rate of 8.25% and net profit rate of 19.70%. In 2021, due to the impact of the global automobile supply chain tension caused by the epidemic and automobile core shortage, the revenue in the first three quarters increased slightly year-on-year, and the net profit decreased slightly. With the alleviation of the shortage of automotive chips, the recovery of vehicle factory production scheduling, and the continuous volume of new customers and new products of the company, the performance is expected to enter a high growth period.
The global intelligent controller production capacity is migrating to China, and the on-board controller is one of the most valuable markets. With the development of electrification, intelligence and networking technology, terminal innovation has entered the stage of blooming flowers, and terminal products represented by electric vehicles, smart appliances and electric tools have ushered in great development. Global automobile sales are stable, and the proportion of new energy vehicles has increased rapidly. The function richness of traditional medium and high-end vehicles and new energy vehicles has been continuously improved, and the number of single vehicles and system design of vehicle controller have become more and more complex. In the field of lamp control, for example, led penetration continues to improve, and the configuration of atmosphere lamps increases, which improves the overall lamp control value. We estimate that the light control products include main light source controller, auxiliary light source controller, tail light controller and atmosphere light controller. The total value of a single vehicle is 500-1000 yuan, and the market space of light controller is nearly 100 billion yuan. From the perspective of vehicle function chip, 60-70 MCU are required for each vehicle of mainstream passenger vehicles, and more than 100 MCU are configured for each vehicle of high-end vehicles. Automotive controllers account for more than 20% of the intelligent controller market. The suppliers are mainly overseas giants, and the technical barriers are higher than those in other industries. We expect that with the new opportunities brought by the rise of new automobile forces in China and the change of automobile architecture, Chinese controller manufacturers with technical strength, manufacturing cost advantage and engineer bonus are expected to become the main suppliers in the world.
New customers and new business development have made breakthroughs and look forward to the field of distributed local controller. The company’s light control products are the main supplier of Volkswagen, and continue to expand new products into the Volkswagen system to improve the value. The top three customers of the company are Volkswagen system, and their market share in Volkswagen Group continues to increase. In addition, BMW tail lights, Renault headlights and Ford headlights began mass production and climbing. Japanese customers developed the fixed-point of Infiniti headlamp controller and obtained the fixed-point project of Suzuki auxiliary light source controller. Vigorously expand Honda, Toyota, GM and other new customer markets and improve market share. New business development: motor control + on-board electronics + domain controller. The total single vehicle value of the product is several times that of light control products. AGS has obtained 5 new project sites, and its customers cover Volkswagen, Volvo, Weilai, Chang’an, Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) and other customers. The customer expansion of on-board USB products is good, and there are abundant orders in hand at present. Domain control products have been designated for chassis domain controller projects of Byd Company Limited(002594) several models, as well as DCC (adaptive suspension controller) and ASC (air suspension controller) products of Xiaopeng, Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal and other models. The company focuses on subdividing individual fields, improves professional technology and service quality, and is expected to become a leader in vehicle controllers with global competitiveness.
Investment suggestion: the company is the world’s leading vehicle controller leader. Its penetration in the mass market system continues to improve, new customers continue to break through, and its products extend from light control to other control system products. With the alleviation of the shortage of automobile chips, the epidemic situation has been gradually controlled, the production scheduling of the whole vehicle factory has resumed, and the performance is expected to enter a high growth period. We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 422 million yuan / 753 million yuan / 1019 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 1.05 yuan / 1.88 yuan / 2.55 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 49x in 2022. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the development of new customers is less than the expected risk; New product introduction is less than expected risk; The risk of global auto sales falling short of expectations; Risk of decline in gross profit margin due to price rise of upstream raw materials
