Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) (688556)
The company’s capacity transformation of diamond line and the expansion of chip OEM project are reasonable
The company is the leader of silicon wafer cutting solutions, opening up a new market for chip OEM, and high-quality track of card heterojunction. The company’s diamond line capacity has been basically improved, and the Leshan silicon wafer project is about to be put into operation. We maintain the profit forecast unchanged. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 147 / 3.92/560 million respectively, and EPS will be RMB 0.91/2.42/3.46/share respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a P / E ratio of 86.0/32.3/22.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The capacity transformation of diamond line has increased the production efficiency by nearly three times
According to the reply document of the company’s convertible bond inquiry letter, the company has carried out the production technical transformation of diamond line, the line speed has been increased from 20 m / min to 30 m / min, the number of lower rolls per time has been increased from 6 rolls to 12 rolls, and the production efficiency has been improved nearly three times. The construction of 20 diamond line production lines can form an annual production capacity of 3.2 million km of gold and steel line. The production processes and technologies involved in the technical transformation are independently developed by the company. In addition, the company disclosed that the King Kong line industrialization project will reach the expected usable state in December 2021.
The expansion of chip OEM project is reasonable
According to the reply to the inquiry letter of the company’s convertible bonds, The main projects of the company’s chip OEM are photovoltaic large silicon wafers (about 500 million G12 silicon wafers are expected to be produced annually, which is expected to reach production in December 2021 and full production in December 2022) and Leshan 20g photovoltaic large silicon wafers (12gw machine processing capacity and 6Gw chip production capacity in phase I are expected to reach production in the second half of 2022). Combined with the neutral prediction of Photovoltaic Industry Association, the proportion of various types of silicon wafers, the 1.2:1 capacity ratio of module output and installed capacity, and the calculation of 5% loss rate from silicon wafers to module ends, the installed capacity of photovoltaic will be increased by 300gw in 2025, and the required silicon wafers will be 378.95gw (including 360gw of 182mm and above silicon wafers and 189.49gw of 210mm silicon wafers), the supply side of silicon wafers has a large gap compared with the market demand in 2025. The capacity construction may effectively alleviate the lack of capacity of large-size monocrystalline silicon wafers, and the expansion is reasonable. Leshan 24gw monocrystalline silicon rod will be expanded in Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) in 2021, and the expansion of downstream customers will ensure the company’s capacity digestion.
Convertible bonds are overweight, and a new market for OEM business is opened
The company plans to issue no more than 490 million yuan of convertible bonds, mainly for Leshan 12gw machining and 6Gw photovoltaic large silicon wafer and supporting projects. It is expected that the project will reach production in the second half of 2022. Among them, (1) Leshan 12gw machining is planned to invest 180 million yuan, including 157 million yuan of capital expenditure. (2) Leshan 6Gw photovoltaic large silicon wafer project is planned to invest 386 million yuan, including 336 million yuan of capital expenditure.
Risk tip: the global PV installation is lower than expected, the OEM business progress is lower than expected, and the order price decreases
