Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Conclusions and recommendations:
Steady business growth: according to the business data released by Yuantong in October, the company completed 1.574 billion pieces of business, a year-on-year increase of 19.47%, realized express revenue of 3.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.59%, and single ticket revenue of 2.29 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.80%. From January to October, the company completed a total business volume of 13.215 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 37.38%, achieved a total revenue of 29.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.65%, and a single ticket revenue of 2.20 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.72%. In terms of express delivery volume, the business volume completed by the company in August, September and October was 1.38 billion, 1.453 billion and 1.574 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, 19.4% and 19.5%. Among them, 8. In September, the growth rate of parts volume far exceeded that of the industry (+ 24.3%, + 16.8%), and the market share was 15.8%, with a month on month increase of 0.4pct and a year-on-year decrease of 0.19pct. It is worth noting that the company’s market share did not decline significantly under the year-on-year increase of single ticket price, indicating that the company has expanded and upgraded network capacity after two years of internal reform (its own transfer center, machinery and equipment, trunk transport vehicles, it system) and air transport capacity have greatly improved the timeliness and service quality, and promoted the improvement of business volume and operation efficiency.
Single ticket prices continued to rise: with the continuous improvement of the company’s business capacity and the guidance of industrial policies, the company’s single ticket prices have risen for three consecutive months. The single ticket prices in July, August, September and October were 2.02 yuan, 2.13 yuan, 2.28 yuan and 2.29 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 6.3%, 1.03%, 4.7% and 6.9% respectively. It is worth noting that in August, the company became positive year-on-year for the first time since 2019. After the express industry announced the increase of dispatch fee in September, the company’s single ticket price and increase remained ahead, and the price stabilized and rebounded significantly. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of Q4 industry, the single ticket price may rise further. It is expected that the price increase range and price increase cycle in the peak season will be better than those in previous years and are expected to continue until the end of this year, driving the significant improvement of the company’s profit elasticity.
Focus on service quality and continuously improve the comprehensive competitiveness: the company is one of the franchised express enterprises that introduced professional managers earlier. After joining the company in April 2019, Mr. Pan Shuimiao, director and President, is fully responsible for the company’s operation and management, promote the upgrading of digital transformation enabled products, and continuously improve the operation efficiency and cost reduction, Promote the improvement of service quality and pricing ability, and realize customer stratification and product classification. It can be seen that the average single vehicle loading increased from 7922 tickets in 2019 to 12000 tickets in 2021h1, and the transportation cost of single ticket was 0.51 yuan, which was the same as last year and decreased by 26% compared with 2019. The operating cost of single ticket center decreased by 5.52% year-on-year to 0.31 yuan; Single ticket delivery service decreased by 7.47% year-on-year to 1.12 yuan. Secondly, after digitizing the management and control efficiency of transfer center posts, the unloading efficiency increased from an average of 900 pieces / hour in September 2020 to 1400 pieces / hour in March 2021, with an increase of more than 50% and a per capita increase of more than 40%. In addition, according to the timeliness ranking data of “rookie index”, the company ranked first in Tongda in July, September and October. The company disclosed that the average express mail loss rate in 2021h1 decreased by 15% year-on-year, and the customer complaint rate decreased by more than 38% year-on-year. The company actively improves service quality, focuses on cost control and improves product structure to achieve differentiation and improve industry competitiveness.
The increase of senior executives’ holdings shows the company’s confidence: Mr. Pan Shuimiao increased his holdings of 400000 shares of the company through centralized bidding on November 10, 2021, accounting for 0.0127% of the company’s shares, with an increase amount of RMB 5.07 million, and voluntarily promised not to reduce his holdings within two years from the date of completion of this increase. This increase shows the management’s confidence in the company’s operation and long-term development.
Profit forecast: the industry generally maintains a relatively high growth rate. With the gradual implementation of policies and supervision, the price competition is expected to slow down and the profitability of the company is expected to continue to improve. It is estimated that the net profit will be 1.512 billion yuan and 1.784 billion yuan respectively in 21 and 22 years, yoy will be – 14% and yoy + 18% respectively, and EPS will be 0.48 yuan and 0.56 yuan respectively. The current A-share price corresponds to 32 times and 27 times P / E, maintaining the buying investment proposal.
Risk tips: market competition intensifies, cost reduction and efficiency increase are less than expected, and the online stores of franchisees are unstable.
