Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) (600009)
Key investment points
Major asset restructuring plan: the transaction price is 19.132 billion yuan, and the financing is no more than 5 billion yuan Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) . The major asset restructuring transaction plan includes:
Issue shares to purchase assets: the issue price is 44.09 yuan / share, the total transaction consideration is 19.132 billion yuan, and the number of issued shares is 394 million shares. The acquisition targets include:
(1) 100% equity of Hongqiao company: according to the asset-based method, the asset valuation is 14.516 billion yuan, with a value-added rate of 91.52%. Among them, the assessed value of aviation and supporting assets is 9.949 billion yuan, and the assessed value of advertising sector assets is 4.567 billion yuan (including the assessed value of Airport advertising position use right is 3.655 billion yuan, and the assessed value of 49% equity of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) Advertising Co., Ltd. is 912 million yuan).
(2) 100% equity of logistics company: according to the income method, the asset valuation is RMB 3.119 billion, and the estimated value-added rate is 269.97%.
(3) The fourth runway in Pudong: according to the cost method, the assessed value and transaction price are RMB 1.497 billion, and the assessed value-added rate is 29.36%.
The raised matching funds shall not exceed 5 billion yuan, the issue price shall be 39.19 yuan / share, and the issue quantity shall not exceed 128 million shares.
The overall corresponding valuation is 22.7 times PE and 2.0 times Pb, which is basically in a reasonable range
In 2019, the overall impact of the underlying assets on the net profit is about 840 million yuan, and the transaction consideration corresponds to 22.7 times PE: according to the profit level in 2019, the net profit that the underlying assets can bring to the listed company is about 840 million yuan, including the net profit of Hongqiao Airport of 515 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent of the logistics company of 240 million yuan The saved rental fee of Pudong fourth runway (about 120 million yuan) affects the net profit of 90 million yuan. The current overall net asset of the underlying asset is about 10.94 billion yuan, corresponding to 2.0 times Pb: by the end of 2021h1, the net assets of Hongqiao Airport, logistics company and Pudong fourth runway are about 7.58 billion yuan, 840 million yuan and 1.16 billion yuan respectively.
(1) Hongqiao company: ① profitability: in 2019, the operating revenue of Hongqiao Airport was 3.14 billion yuan, including aviation revenue of 1.66 billion yuan (53%), non aviation revenue of 1.48 billion yuan (47%), gross profit margin of 16.75%; net profit of 515 million yuan, net profit margin of 16.4% (the net interest rate of Pudong Airport is 38.1%). ② Valuation: the acquisition price of Hongqiao Airport is 14.52 billion yuan, corresponding to 28 times of PE and 1.9x of Pb. Compared with Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , the current market value corresponds to 24x and 25X of PE under the profitability level in 2019; the current Pb is 1.2x and 1.5x respectively.
(2) Logistics companies: ① profitability: in 2019, the operating revenue of the logistics company was 1.62 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 48.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 240 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 37.0% (the net profit margin of Pudong airport was 38.1%). ② Valuation: the acquisition price of the logistics company was 3.119 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE of 13.8 times and a corresponding Pb of 3.7x. Benchmarking Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) At present, PE is about 15.9x and Pb is about 4.2x.
(3) Pudong’s fourth runway: ① save rental fees: according to the announcement, the total area of the runway and supporting facilities is about 2.83 million square meters, according to the rental price of 40.8 yuan / square meter (from 2017 to 2019, the unit price of the company’s leased space to the group was 40.9, 40.8 and 60.7 yuan / m2 respectively, of which the rental unit price increased due to the new satellite hall and other venues in 2019). According to the calculation, the rental fee in that year was about 120 million yuan, affecting the net profit attributable to the parent company of about 90 million yuan. ② the net book value of the runway was 1.16 billion yuan, and the Pb corresponding to the acquisition price was about 1.3x.
Major shareholders made performance compensation commitments, issued shares to purchase assets, basically did not dilute, raised 5 billion funds or slightly diluted
Performance compensation commitment: according to the announcement, the controlling shareholder airport group formulated the profit forecast for 2022-24 and promised that the part lower than the profit forecast would be compensated by the shares obtained by the airport group from the sale of profit forecast assets in this transaction. 1) Advertising section (49% equity attributable to Hongqiao): the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2022-24 shall not be less than 417, 435 and 450 million yuan respectively, totaling about 1.31 billion yuan; 2) logistics sector: the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2022-24 shall not be less than 187, 219 and 243 million yuan respectively, totaling about 650 million yuan. Diluted EPS: ① based on the current profitability and assessed value of the subject asset According to the valuation level, we believe that the issuance of shares to purchase assets will basically not dilute the EPS of listed companies and underlying assets in 2020 and January June 2021, The EPS before and after the transaction in 2020 were -0.66 yuan / share (before the transaction) and -0.51 yuan / share (after the transaction). ② 128 million shares were issued to raise matching funds of 5 billion yuan, which we think is slightly diluted. After the completion of this transaction (excluding the raising of matching funds), the total shares of the company will be 2.36 billion shares; after the completion of this transaction (considering raising supporting funds), the number of shares was 2.49 billion, an increase of 5.4%.
Open international functions, expand duty-free area, focus on luxury + first store economy, jointly build taxed commerce, and Hongqiao Airport can be expected in the future
Hongqiao Airport is expected to restore its international functions and expand its duty-free area in the future. In February 2021, the State Council approved the overall plan for the construction of Hongqiao International Open hub, which aims to basically complete the Hongqiao International Open hub by 2025 and fully complete the Hongqiao International Open hub by 20 It is proposed to establish an international air transport cooperation mechanism with Hongqiao International Airport as the core, optimize and expand the international shipping service of Hongqiao Airport, and clarify the functional orientation suitable for the international open hub; At the same time, apply for the expansion of duty-free shopping places at Hongqiao International Airport and carry out the pilot of “buy and return” of departure tax rebate.
With the development of heavy luxury + first store economy, there is great potential for tax business in Hongqiao Airport. Hongqiao Airport has a large number of high-quality routes, and continues to optimize the commercial layout and format structure, Vigorously introduce luxury brands (the first-line brand Avenue has gathered 18 luxury brands such as LV), and develop the first store economy of well-known brands, online Red brands and trendy brands (for example, 23 catering brands have been introduced into the first store of the airport). With the continuous upgrading of Hongqiao commercial brands, we believe that the contribution of tax districts to performance will continue to improve.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 will be -1.46 billion yuan, 950 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan respectively. Considering that China’s travel demand has basically recovered and the entry-exit restrictions are expected to be relaxed next year, based on the two synergistic effects, the income elasticity of tax-free and taxable businesses is expected to exceed expectations and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the recovery of passenger flow is less than expected, and the results of tax-free re bidding after 2025 are less than expected
