\u3000\u30001. Recommended combination
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 031 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 6011 Shenzhen Universe (Group) Co.Ltd(000023) 53 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points
[tool industry] when the industry demand picks up and the import substitution of domestic tools is in progress
With the resumption of work and production after the festival and the recovery of downstream demand, the demand of the tool industry has been strong since the beginning of the year. At present, the production scheduling of mainstream domestic tool enterprises ranges from January to February (2021q4 is scheduled in one month +), and the orders are full.
The performance forecast of domestic cutting tool enterprises in 2021 is bright and the profitability is improving Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) 2021 median forecast net profit attributable to parent company was 162 million yuan, higher than wind’s consensus expectation of 159 million yuan Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) performance express net profit attributable to the parent company was 222 million yuan, which also exceeded the previous market expectation. At the same time, the scale efficiency + cost management ability is improved. We expect that the net interest rates of Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) and Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) 2021 will increase by more than 4pct year-on-year, and the profitability will continue to improve. With the completion of the plant and the landing of the equipment, 20222023 will become the centralized release period of the production capacity of domestic tool brands. It is recommended that the domestic tool faucet [ Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) ], which is accelerating the large-scale production, should be paid attention to [ Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ].
Construction machinery: CME estimates that the sales volume of excavator in February is – 22% year-on-year, and the export is still strong
CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) will be about 22000 in February 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of about – 22%, and the decline is basically the same. Among them, the estimated growth rate of sales volume in China market is – 38%, and the decline of sales volume growth in China market is narrowed slightly; The estimated growth rate of export sales is about 87%, and the sales volume is basically the same as that in January.
The issuance of special bonds was accelerated, and attention was paid to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth. In December 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone of “steady growth”. At the end of 2021, the issuance of special bonds was accelerated. The Ministry of Finance issued a quota of 1.46 trillion yuan of new special bonds in 2022 in advance, promoting the issuance and use of the quota in the first quarter of this year. The issuance of new special bonds will be accelerated to promote the physical workload of major projects. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth of infrastructure construction. Recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) .
Power exchange equipment: Ningde and sany jointly promote the implementation of power exchange heavy truck project, and the power exchange mode welcomes the rapid development
With the gradual improvement of China’s policies, many parties can benefit from the power exchange mode. For end users, the power exchange mode has high energy supplement efficiency and the comprehensive cost is lower than that of charging mode; For battery factories, the power exchange mode creates greater battery market space; For the operators of the replacement power station, the capacity utilization rate of the replacement power station can reach 20% to achieve profit and loss balance. When the penetration rate of the replacement electric vehicle type increases and the frequency of power replacement increases, the replacement power station will bring higher profitability. On February 22, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) joined hands with Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) to promote the implementation of Fujian Province Power Exchange heavy card application demonstration project. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) high-capacity lithium iron phosphate battery is used for the electric trunk heavy truck and muck truck launched this time. At the same time, it meets the high-power fast charging and realizes the rapid power change within 3-5 minutes, which overcomes the anxiety of heavy truck vehicles in terms of charging time and mileage and greatly improves the vehicle operation efficiency.
We believe that 2022 is the first year of large-scale replacement power station, and Geely, SAIC, BAIC and other mainstream car enterprises have begun to launch replacement electric models, which will benefit the replacement equipment manufacturers in the early stage of the industry. The core equipment of the power station is charging and discharging equipment, testing equipment and automation equipment. In terms of value, the unit investment of passenger car power exchange equipment is about 2.6 million yuan, and that of commercial vehicle power exchange equipment is about 4.2 million yuan. We expect that in 2025, more than 16000 new power stations will be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 60 billion yuan. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) , Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) .
Hydrogen energy equipment: policies drive the acceleration of hydrogen energy industry and focus on high-quality “shovel sellers”
With frequent favorable policies, China’s hydrogen energy industry is expected to usher in an acceleration period. Hydrogen is an ideal clean energy under China’s carbon neutralization goal. In recent years, government support policies are frequent, and the industrial economy market is broad. The development of China’s hydrogen energy industry will usher in an accelerated period.
The hydrogen industry involves many core links, and the dawn of localization of core equipment appears. ① Hydrogen production: hydrogen production from fossil energy is the mainstream route in China. In the long run, hydrogen production from electrolytic water, which continues to reduce costs, is the general trend of the industry. As the core equipment for hydrogen production from electrolytic water, alkaline electrolyzer has basically realized localization; ② Hydrogen storage: on-board hydrogen storage is the largest segment of hydrogen storage market. At present, China’s on-board hydrogen storage is still dominated by 35MPa III bottles. 70MPa II and IV hydrogen storage bottles are technically difficult and are still dominated by overseas enterprises; ③ Hydrogenation: in the cost composition of the hydrogenation station, the equipment investment accounts for up to 45%. The core equipment hydrogen compressor and hydrogenation machine are still highly dependent on imports, and equipment localization is the most important means to reduce costs.
The fuel cell market is rapidly opening up, and local equipment companies are accelerating their layout. Fuel cell vehicles are in a period of rapid introduction. GGII predicts that the market scale of fuel cell industry will reach 23 billion yuan in 2023 and 70 billion yuan in 2025. At present, as the industry is still in the early stage of industrialization, the head shuffling phenomenon occurs frequently. With the technical route & determining the market demand and forming the scale effect, we are optimistic about the local enterprises with the first mover advantage to stand out. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co.Ltd(002158) , etc.
Photovoltaic equipment: the performance of leading equipment companies in 2021 exceeded expectations, with high performance and strong growth certainty in 2022
The company’s performance forecasts that we are particularly optimistic about have been released, all exceeding the consensus expectations of the market. Specifically: (1) Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 1.58-1.84 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 84% – 114%. Wind is expected to be RMB 1.595 billion, close to the lower limit of performance forecast. (2) Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) performance forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 580680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.1% – 72.4%, the median performance forecast is 630 million yuan, and wind unanimously expects it to be 600 million yuan. (3) The expected net profit for the year is RMB 11.0 billion . (4) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) performance forecast predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 490510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 191% – 200%, and wind unanimously expects it to be 450 million yuan. Investment suggestions: focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , and pay attention to Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ; Recommended for silicon wafer link Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; Component link recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommend Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) .
Risk warning: the downstream fixed asset investment is less than the market expectation; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
