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Special research this week: the intensification of the border conflict between Russia and Ukraine may lead to a further rise in oil and gas prices, and the new energy era is expected to accelerate
1. There was an exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine this week, and the border situation is still unclear: on the 22nd of this month, Russia recognized the "people's Republic of Donetsk" and "people's Republic of Lugansk" established by civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine; On the 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in the Donbas region; On the 25th, the Ukrainian army and the Russian army had a fierce exchange of fire in the center of Sumei. So far, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not been clear.
2. The intensification of the border conflict between Russia and Ukraine or the further rise of oil and gas prices: oil and gas prices have risen rapidly recently. The futures prices of NYMEX crude oil and NYMEX natural gas have increased by more than 20% since the beginning of the year, while the natural gas price in Europe has increased nearly four times in the past year. At present, one third of the natural gas in Europe comes from Russia. In the context of rising oil and gas prices, more industrial, power and heating users accustomed to using traditional energy will be looking for safer ways to solve their needs. Therefore, the arrival of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and other new energy era may be accelerated.
3. Pay attention to the opportunities of wind power photovoltaic and other new energy industries: wind power is expected to maintain high economic growth in 2022, and policy promotion + parity has become the source of wind power growth. It is recommended to pay attention to the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain, Jiangsu Lixing General Steel Ball Co.Ltd(300421) (large-size steel ball of motor), Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) (leading enterprise of Haifeng converter), Jiangxi Huawu Brake Co.Ltd(300095) (leading enterprise of wind power brake), etc; The installed capacity of PV in China may reach 75gw in 2022, and all links of the industrial chain are facing reshuffle. It is suggested to pay attention to: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , etc.
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment resonates with the global production capacity cycle. It is estimated that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, and the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly. At the same time, the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials is expected to stimulate downstream demand, and we are optimistic about the leaders of battery chips and module equipment;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary foundation for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable to the implementation. Power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, the strong is always strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
