Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) (688301)
After 10 years of hard work, it has become the leader of domestic digital X-ray detector, with a CAGR of more than 60% in 5 years. The company is one of the few manufacturers in the world who master the four sensor technologies of amorphous silicon, igzo, CMOS and flexible substrate. Its products are exported to more than 70 countries and regions around the world, with a total global shipment of more than 50000 units. Its customers widely cover well-known image equipment manufacturers at home and abroad, always ranking first in China's market segments, and forming a local leading position in the global market. The compound growth rate of performance in the past five years has exceeded 60%, and the medical static contribution to the revenue is 76.7%. The CAGR of medical static / medical dynamic / industrial dynamic revenue in 2015-2020 is 25.1% / 58.1% / 97.4% respectively. The medical dynamic + industrial post launch is strong, and the epidemic continues to exceed expectations above the high base. The founders are senior experts in the upstream and downstream industries of the detector. With continuous high investment in R & D and professional R & D team, the company continues to break through the difficult technology of the detector, build cost advantage with core technology and continue to lock in competitive advantage.
Diversified applications drive the global detector Market of US $2 billion, and domestic manufacturers accelerate the import substitution of China + the global market share continues to increase. At the policy level, the medical device policy is inclined to the edge of the upstream core components, and the core components are expected to catch up with the downstream pattern; Diversified businesses continue to open up growth space, medical static: China's grass-roots penetration demand is dominated, the structural trend of wireless products is upward, the main melody of downstream price reduction is generally released, the cost oriented domestic competition pattern is determined to be upward, and the future growth of Chinese companies is seen from the substitution of Chinese imports to the increase of global market share. Medical trends: the demand for oral health care is broad, the demand for high-end dynamic image detectors is static, and China's private dental clinics are expanding + the penetration rate of CBCT is increasing. We estimate that the scale of China's detectors will be about 440 ~ 880 million yuan in 2025. The downstream price reduction trend will take advantage of the situation, and the market share of domestic dental detectors will continue to increase. Industry: the multi-point application of power battery semiconductors has blossomed, opening up a multi-dimensional growth space. New energy vehicle power battery testing and semiconductor back-end packaging testing have become new growth points of industrial nondestructive testing. We calculate that the annual market space of detectors in the field of power batteries will be about 380 million yuan in the next five years; In 2025, the market space in the semiconductor field will be about 900 million yuan. In terms of competition pattern, high barriers create a global concentration pattern, and domestic manufacturers gradually catch up in the pattern of foreign monopoly by virtue of R & D speed advantage and cost advantage.
Start with price, profit from cost, specialize in technology, and finally open up a growth curve from point to surface. The company took the initiative to exchange price for quantity, challenged the industry leader from the price side, reshaped the price center, opened up a profit route against the trend with cost advantage, won the deep recognition of the world's top high-quality major customers with comparable imported products and high cost performance, and the foreign market share in China continued to increase. In essence, the company's competitive play is to avoid the traditional competitive dimension, cut in from the price no man's land, and use the cost control of excellence to make the competitors unable to follow up the cost advantage and continuously lock in the long-term competitive advantage. We believe that the company's price strategy and industry trend strengthen each other. In the future, the logic of increasing market share will gradually evolve from the upstream active price for quantity in the early stage to the downstream active price for quantity, and the company's growth certainty will continue to improve. In addition, the company focuses on building an integrated supplier of core parts of X-ray imaging equipment and moving towards an image chain product development and solution supplier. With clear strategic planning, the track has strong vertical and horizontal correlation, and opens the ceiling of long-term growth from point to surface.
Investment advice
The company is the leader of X-ray detector in China, with high cost performance and deep binding with Chinese foreign customers. The expansion of the company's downstream market and capacity expansion will promote the company's rapid and large-scale application of long-drive global detector market, and the growth momentum will continue to transform global potential energy. We predict that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.174/1.634/2.259 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 417/5.67/782 million and EPS will be RMB 5.75/7.82/10.78 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 95x / 70X / 51x from 2021 to 2023. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk statement
Dental and industrial shipments were lower than expected; New product development is not as expected; Medical static service
