Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 13th, and SW passenger car PE was in the historical quantile of 95%. SW auto fell 0.2%, outperforming the market by 0.2pct. In addition to SW passenger cars and SW auto parts, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial buses and SW auto services showed a decline. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 13th this week, ranking in the middle. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 95% / 93% quantile respectively, which is the same as that of last week; PE / Pb of SW parts are in the historical 70% / 65% quantile respectively, and the quantile is 0pct / + 1PCT month on month. Horizontal comparison, passenger car sector valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PB is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 202202.19 ~ 202202.26, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the shortage of chips continued to improve, and retail sales fell month on month; Enterprises & channels to the library. According to the passenger Federation, from February 14 to 20, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 46965, with a year-on-year increase of + 67% and a month on month decrease of – 32%; In the first three weeks of February, the cumulative average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 33401, with a year-on-year increase of – 5% and a month on month increase of – 47%; From February 14 to 20, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 61792, 142% year-on-year and – 9% month on month; In the first three weeks of February, the cumulative average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 39579, with a year-on-year increase of + 26% and a month on month increase of – 33%. The output of narrow passenger cars in January was 2.042 million, up + 9.6% year on year and – 17.1% month on month; The wholesale sales volume was 2.158 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.1% and a month on month increase of – 8.8%; In January, there were 2175800 strong traffic insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 4.11% / – 0.62% respectively. Inventory: in January, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was – 113000, and the channel inventory was – 173000.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. The overall price index of raw materials such as aluminum and plastic (Tianjian plastic) was – 0.02% / – 25.02% higher than that of last week’s five-month model, with the price index of raw materials such as aluminum and plastic (14.02% / – 25.02% higher than that of last week’s five-month model), and the price index of raw materials such as aluminum and plastic was – 0.02% / – 25.02% higher than that of last week’s five-month model.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment of the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. Recommend [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], pay attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. For the recommendation of the sector of parts and components for the sector recommendation of [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002fora\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
