Weekly News Express
Industry news: 1) the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas requires that by 2025, the national dairy output will reach about 41 million tons, and the proportion of large-scale breeding of more than 100 heads will reach about 75%; 2) the regulations on the environmental protection of Maoxiang Baijiu liquor production in Chishui River Basin of Guizhou Province, to protect the production environment of Maotai flavor liquor. 3) Sichuan’s Baijiu liquor sales volume was 345 billion 140 million yuan (+14%), and its profit increased by 24.9%. 4) Tongren, Guizhou: a new 7000 ton Baijiu project.
Company news: 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) plans to build a “landscape, forest, earth and river micro” life community in an all-round way, and the second batch has been put into operation in 19 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) accelerate the construction of “digital Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ” and build an industry-leading “ecological Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) “; 3) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) “mianroujiao 6 / 9” settlement price increased by 5 yuan / bottle; 4) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) medium and high-end high-quality wine consumption has increased significantly.
Feedback from key companies this week
Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : Anhui is in the period of development and cultivation, and the dealers are confident. 1) At present, the company is mainly responsible for internal participation in investment promotion in southern Anhui, requiring the growth target to be doubled; 2) The products are mainly 52 degrees, with a wholesale price of about 850 yuan and a payment price of 1030 yuan. The dealers have strong confidence.
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : organizational structure adjustment and flexible marketing of the division. 1) The region is divided into 61 business divisions, marketing policies are specified according to local conditions, and the functions of regional managers are refined. 2) The dynamic sales of dream 6 + and dream 3 crystal bottles are good, accounting for about 45% of the annual task in the first quarter, and a large single product of 1000 yuan will be launched in the later stage. 3) The key to the future growth of the company is the cultivation of sub high-end large single products, the supply of Southern Jiangsu market and the nationalization of sub high-end products.
Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) : about 50% of the Spring Festival payment in Hefei, and the potential energy of cave storage remains unchanged. 1) Dongzang Spring Festival sales are good, the inventory is less than half a month, and the payment in the first quarter is 50%. 2) The profit margin above Dong16 is higher. It is expected that the single product of dong6 / 9 is expected to exceed 100 million in Hefei. 3) The price of Dong 6 is 110 yuan, and the price of Dong 9 / 16 is 190 yuan and 280 yuan respectively. The growth rate of Dong 9 is the fastest (accounting for 30%), followed by Dong 6 (accounting for 50%), and the growth rate of Dong 16 and 20 is the same.
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : equity incentive is expected to be launched in the first half of the year, and V series is expected to grow rapidly. 1) An additional 20000 tons of high-quality sauce wine is mainly supplied to V9. The price band of large V9 card is 2000 yuan, and the price band of small V9 card is 12001300 yuan. V9 aims at the new Maotai head track. 2) V99 alliance has in-depth cooperation with V9 high-quality resources, with honor and interest mechanism and high cost support. 3) Four open, opposite open and elegant are the top three items respectively. Guoyuan accounts for 80% and V series accounts for 10%. 4) Equity incentive may be launched in the first half of the year.
Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) : channels in mature regions are sinking, and the sales growth rate in 22 years may be 25% +. 1) In 2021, Jiangsu’s dynamic sales will be about 200 million and Zhejiang’s about 400 million. 2) It is estimated that the sales revenue will increase by more than 25% in 2022, of which Yancheng and Huai’an regions will basically increase by 25%. 3) National expansion relies on channel sinking and new product laying. The main task in the past two years is to expand small catering channels and make up for other channels. There is still a large sinking space in mature areas such as Jiangsu. 4) At present, the main competitive products are 450ml Wahaha and AD calcium milk.
Investment view
Baijiu sector: this week due to external environment fluctuations, epidemic point like eruption brought about sector adjustment, sector fundamentals are still good. It is about to enter the Baijiu traditional off-season in March, focusing on the price and inventory situation of liquor companies. Huarun’s acquisition of gold seeds is also an integration of off shore capital to the industry. The competition of future emblem will be further intense, but the overall industry concentration will continue to improve.
Popular products sector: this week, the seasoning sub sector rose due to the issuance of equity incentives by Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) and so on, which is essentially the rise in the market’s valuation of good catalyst enterprises. Continue to pay attention to the transmission progress of price increase in seasoning channels; In the snack food sector, Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) released a performance express this week, and the overall trend is good. In last week’s weekly report, we clearly put forward that we are optimistic about the opportunities of the snack food sector and suggest paying active attention to them.
On the whole, our view remains unchanged: at this stage Baijiu sector we recommend three high-end wine giants ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ), three high-end three swordsmen ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ), real estate wine, four gentlemen ( Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ). In the popular products sector, we mainly recommend Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , and continue to pay attention to the beer and condiment sectors. Give the food and beverage industry an “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of epidemic fluctuation; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Recommend the risk that the company’s performance is less than expected; Industry competition risk; Food safety risks; Risk of changes in industrial policies; Consumption tax or production risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
