NDRC coal price mechanism released, steady growth and steady performance will catalyze the coal market
This week, the price of thermal coal is greatly affected by the policy. On the one hand, the national development and Reform Commission and local regulatory authorities continue to implement the spot price limit standard of port / pit mouth. On the other hand, the coal price range mechanism was officially released this week, clarifying the long-term price range of port / pit mouth. In contrast to the policy price stabilization trend, with the resumption of work in the downstream and the catalysis of low-temperature weather, the coal demand has strengthened in stages, and the fundamentals show the support for the coal price. We judge that the current coal price may still operate on the high side within the price limit, and there is no basis for a significant downward trend. In the later stage, after March, with the temperature rising, the coal demand will fall seasonally. However, considering that the price limit policy has released the downward pressure on the coal price in advance, and the steady growth policy has driven the demand for infrastructure construction, we believe that the coal price may still operate stably in the “off-season” stage. In addition, we also need to pay attention to the dynamic regulation of supply side policies in the later stage. In terms of the coal stock market, it is a market consensus that there is a policy ceiling in the current coal price. The reduction of the benchmark price of the long-term association by 30 yuan has a relatively limited impact on the fundamentals of the coal enterprises of the high long-term association. It does not change the long-term logic of the substantial remodeling of the coal price center under the background of energy reform. The further improvement of the interval mechanism also provides a policy basis for the stability of the high coal price, and the predictability of the performance of coal enterprises is further improved. At present, the driving force of the coal sector is no longer the elastic release of performance supported by price. The short-term high performance of coal enterprises has been gradually recognized by the market, and the stable release of performance in the medium and long term is the key factor to clear the expected obstacles and guide the reconstruction of coal stock valuation. The investment logic of the coal sector may mainly focus on the two main lines of “stable growth” and “transformation”: in terms of “stable growth”, the infrastructure real estate chain benefits, which is good for the coal coke steel industry chain, and the peak of steel carbon can delay the demand for coking coal. In addition, the price of coking coal is determined by the market and the policy is not controlled, so the coking coal sector still has obvious elasticity; In terms of “transformation”, under the background of carbon neutrality, the willingness of coal enterprises to increase production capacity has decreased significantly. In the future, coal prices will remain high and endogenous growth is insufficient, but epitaxial growth will become the mainstream. Coal enterprises are highly profitable and have the ability to make transformation, and the future opportunity period is within the next 5-10 years. At present, the undervalued characteristics of coal stocks are obvious. We believe that the coal sector has high allocation value and are optimistic about the valuation and repair of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the price of power coal continued to fall this week, with stable supply and increased demand
This week (February 21-february 25, 2022), the price of thermal coal was greatly affected by the policy. Under the pressure of price control, the spot price of thermal coal in QinGang gradually fell back to 900 yuan. In terms of demand this week, the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises after the festival and the release of demand after the Winter Olympic Games have continued to drive the rise of industrial power load. At the same time, the low-temperature weather across the country has catalyzed the demand for residential power consumption, the daily consumption of power plants has increased, the consumption of inventory has accelerated, and the demand for replenishment and procurement has been released one after another; In terms of supply, the supply of producing areas has been gradually restored, and the production capacity has been released stably; Qin port inventory is lower than that in the same period of previous years, and the supply of port market is tight. The overall supply of fundamentals is stable and the demand is increased. If the price limit policy is not considered, the coal price has fundamental support. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has catalyzed the rise of international energy prices, and the external environment is favorable.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke rose this week, and the demand was released as scheduled after the Winter Olympic Games
Coke: the coke price increased by 200 yuan this week. In terms of demand, after the Winter Olympics, the downstream steel enterprises resumed production rapidly, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased significantly, the demand was released on schedule, the coke fundamentals improved, and the coke enterprises were in a strong mood to raise prices; On the supply side, driven by demand and stimulated by the relaxation of production restrictions, the operating rate of coke enterprises increased significantly this week. Coking coal: coking coal prices rose sharply this week, mainly driven by the accelerated recovery of downstream demand. The operating rates of coke steel enterprises were significantly higher after the Winter Olympic Games, the consumption of high coking coal inventory in the early stage was accelerated, and the demand for replenishment was strengthened again. On the whole, the marginal fundamentals of coking coal are better. Considering that the regulation of stable macroeconomic growth is expected to drive infrastructure and maintain the stability of real estate, the demand of coal, coke and steel industry chain continues to release in the later stage, which is relatively optimistic, and the supply fundamentals of coking coal may be tightened again.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
