\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
In 2021, the annual revenue exceeded expectations, driven by emerging categories, and maintained the "buy" rating
The company issued a performance express, and it is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.148 billion (+ 24.84%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.334 billion (- 19.66%). In 2021q4 alone, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.077 billion (+ 22.96%); Net profit attributable to parent company -08 million (- 101.53%). Due to the short-term pressure on the performance caused by the provision of bad debts, we adjusted the profit forecast for 20212023. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 20212023 will be 1.334/22.402677 billion yuan (the original value is 1.961/22.28/2.506 billion yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 1.41/2.36/2.82 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 25.2/15.0/12.6 times respectively. Considering the slowdown of raw material prices, the implementation of bad debt provision, the obvious advantages of the company's traditional categories and the secondary growth driven by emerging categories, we are optimistic about the company's long-term income growth and performance recovery, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Affected by real estate risks, the growth rate of Engineering channels has declined, and the e-commerce channels have increased rapidly
By channel, it is estimated that the company's retail + Innovation channels will increase revenue by 20% in 2021 and 10% in 2021q4; The project channel is expected to have a high single digit revenue growth rate in 2021 and a year-on-year decline in 2021q4 revenue. We believe that the decline in Q4 project channel may be caused by the company's adjustment of customer structure under the influence of real estate risk; Driven by the brilliant performance of the "double 11", e-commerce channels are expected to increase revenue by 30% + in 2021 and 50% + in 2021q4.
The position of traditional dominant categories has been strengthened, and the secondary growth curve driven by emerging categories has initially taken shape
(1) the advantages of traditional categories are stable. In 2021, the online share of "boss brand" cigarettes / stoves was 23% / 20.92% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.46pct / + 2.95pct respectively; The offline share of smoke / stove was 30.5% / 29.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.26pct / + 3.5pct respectively. (2) Emerging categories are growing rapidly. In 2021, the offline share of integrated steaming and baking machine / embedded dishwasher was 34.8% / 17.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.94 PCT / + 8 PCT respectively. It is expected to launch integrated stoves in March. We believe that the market awareness of integrated stoves has been opened, and the company is expected to achieve rapid growth with the support of strong brand strength.
The one-time withdrawal and landing of bad debt reserves will affect the short-term performance and the long-term recovery can be expected
The provision of bad debts in 2021q4 affects the short-term performance. Considering the impact of 15% income tax, after reducing the impairment loss of bad debts, we expect the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in 2021 to be about 17% and that in 2021q4 to be about 11%, and the performance is basically in line with the expectation. Looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about the growth of emerging categories + the share of traditional categories, which will firmly drive the growth of revenue. It is expected that the annual revenue will increase by 15% in 2022; The marginal improvement of performance can be expected under the slowdown of raw materials and the completion of bad debt provision.
Risk warning: the sales volume of new products is lower than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; Fluctuations in the real estate market.
