\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 533 Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) )
Event overview
The company released the performance express of 2021: the annual revenue of 2021 was 1.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 63 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.0%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 53 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%; Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, a month on month increase of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 19 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.7% and a month on month increase of 35.7%.
Analysis and judgment:
Q4 revenue slightly exceeded expectations, and the profit side was affected by disturbance factors
Benefiting from the growth of speaker business and the volume of new products, power amplifiers and AVAs (according to the performance express, the year-on-year growth rates of speakers, power amplifiers and AVAs in 2021 were 12%, 109% and 145% respectively), the company achieved an overall revenue of 1.303 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 19.8%, slightly higher than previously expected. Among them, Q4's single quarter revenue was 386 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.9% and a month on month increase of + 22.5%, reaching a new high of single quarter revenue.
On the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 63 million yuan in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of - 22.0%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 in a single quarter was 19 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 45.7% and a month on month increase of + 35.7%. We judge that the decline in profits is mainly due to three factors: 1) the price of raw materials (rare earth, bulk metals, plastic particles, etc.) and the rise in sea freight in 2021 reduced the gross profit margin of the company's main products by 2.5pct; 2) In 2021, the company continued to strengthen R & D and innovation, and the superimposed R & D projects increased significantly, resulting in a year-on-year increase in R & D investment of + 44%; 3) In other aspects, it is expected to be affected by the increase of income recognition and bonus expenditure. If the above factors are restored, the annual profit performance is basically in line with expectations.
Industry expansion + market share increase and consolidate speaker base sector business
As the core carrier of human vehicle interaction (the other is vision), automotive acoustics continues to benefit from the trend of electric intelligence + consumption upgrading, and is expected to become the next type of lamp attribute track. It can see the long-term development for at least 10 years, with huge space. As the independent leader of vehicle speakers, the company accounts for 12% of the global market, supporting mainstream vehicle enterprises at home and abroad + OEM Bose to confirm its strength. At the industry level, under the trend of electric intelligence + consumption upgrading, the volume and price of on-board speakers have increased simultaneously (the number of single vehicles + speaker technology upgrading), and the space has been expanded; At the company level, the independent leading position is stable, and the competitors are mainly overseas enterprises. Relying on the advantages of technology and global delivery, we will further explore the European and American markets. The medium and long-term global market share is expected to increase to 18-20%, and continue to consolidate the base sector of speakers.
Loudspeaker single product to complete acoustic solution opens up broad growth space
Horizontal business expansion, from single products to complete acoustic solutions for cars (speaker + independent power amplifier + AVAs). 1) At the technical level, the independent power amplifier (5001000 yuan per car) has penetrated into the medium and low-end models, and the policy of AVAs (40-100 yuan per car) for new energy vehicles has forced the standard configuration, which has driven the supporting value of a single car to more than double that of a single speaker;
2) at the customer level, the vehicle audio system has been designated by Weilai, ideal, Huawei Jinkang and other customers. It will meet the volume in 2022. In the future, it is expected to expand to more customers by virtue of the inherent stickiness of speakers.
From hardware to software, build medium and long-term core competitiveness. The company attaches importance to the accumulation of core technology research and development, has a number of technical reserves such as acoustic product simulation and design, vehicle sound effect design, acoustic signal processing technology and digital speaker system, expands from the existing positioning to software, improves the added value of products and continues to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the acoustic field.
Investment advice
Under the trend of electric intelligence + consumption upgrading, automobile acoustics, as the core carrier of human vehicle interaction (the other is vision), is expected to become the next type of lamp attribute track. As the leader of independent vehicle speakers, the company continues to benefit from the trend of electric intelligence and the change of procurement system. Adjust the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 20212023 will be adjusted from RMB 1.234/18.282865 billion to RMB 1.303/18.282865 billion, and EPS will be adjusted from RMB 0.48/1.02/1.64 to RMB 0.40/1.02/1.64, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 44.60/share on February 25, 2022, and PE will be 113 / 44 / 27 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk tips
The prosperity of the automobile industry is less than expected; The customer expansion of automotive electronic products is less than expected; Raw material prices continued to rise.
