\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 363 Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) )
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021, with revenue + 87.9% year-on-year and net profit attributable to the parent company + 21.1% year-on-year
The company issued a performance express: in 2021, the annual revenue was 4.948 billion yuan (+ 87.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 782 million yuan (+ 21.1%); The revenue of 2021q4 alone was 1.94 billion yuan (+ 86.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 227 million yuan (+ 9.3%). The high growth of functional skin care products led to the higher than expected growth of revenue. We believe that Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) is the leader of the global hyaluronic acid industry, with outstanding advantages in the layout of the whole industrial chain of "raw material + terminal", and four-wheel drive is expected to open up space for sustainable growth. Considering that the company's terminal business will increase the cost investment, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 782 (- 0.49) / 998 (- 1.69) / 1281 (- 287) million yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 163 (- 0.10) / 2.08 (- 0.35) / 2.67 (- 0.60) yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 75.2/58.9/45.9 times. The valuation is reasonable and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
Functional skin care products are growing rapidly, and the brand strength continues to improve; The raw material business and medical terminal business are stable
In terms of business, the company's revenue of functional skin care products increased significantly, with a year-on-year sales revenue of + 146.57%. The company maintained a high frequency of promoting new products, enhanced user stickiness and continued to improve brand influence; The business of raw materials and medical terminal grew steadily year-on-year, of which the business of raw materials increased by + 28.62% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than that in 2020, mainly due to the steady growth of pharmaceutical grade and cosmetic grade raw materials, while food grade and other raw materials increased significantly. In terms of profitability, as the company's terminal business is in the stage of brand building, we expect that the investment in marketing, R & D and other aspects will increase. In addition, the net interest rate will decline due to the impact of the company's confirmation of expenses related to equity incentive.
The company is the leader of the whole industrial chain of hyaluronic acid, and the four-wheel drive market has a broad space in the future
(1) raw material business: the company's hyaluronic acid production capacity is the world's leading, and food grade and other raw materials are expected to become a new growth point in the future. (2) Medical terminal business: in 2021, the company's medical and American strategy was upgraded. Under the background of stricter industry supervision, the market share of the company's high-quality products is expected to continue to increase through the gradual replacement of non-conforming products in the market. (3) Functional skin care products: pay close attention to the outlet of the "component party" and create a multi brand matrix. In 2021, more than 11 brands will shine (the omni-channel sales of runbaiyan / kuadi double 11 will exceed 325 million yuan / 530 million yuan respectively). Large single products have outstanding performance and can continue to grow rapidly in the future. (4) Functional food: shuijiquan was launched in March, black zero was launched in June and Wuxiang corner was launched in August. With the deepening of consumer education, it is expected to contribute to the increment in the future.
Risk warning: the promotion of end products is not as expected; Risk of core personnel turnover; Industry competition intensifies.
