\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 157 Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) )
The coal price mechanism stabilized the power cost, the new mines were approved to contribute to the growth momentum, and maintained the "overweight" rating
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued a document specifying the reasonable range of coal price, that is, the reasonable range of annual long-term association coal price (including tax) of 5500 kcal thermal coal in QinGang is 570 ~ 770 yuan / ton. It is inferred that the new benchmark price of the annual long-term association may be 670 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan lower than the benchmark price of the thermal coal long-term association (700 yuan / ton) published in the previous exposure draft. At the same time, it is narrower than the previous range (550 ~ 850 yuan / ton) and the volatility is reduced. Considering that the proportion of thermal coal purchased by the company's thermal power business Changxie is as high as 80%, the risk of coal cost fluctuation will be greatly reduced, and the performance of the power sector is expected to be released smoothly. Meanwhile, the company's coal sector is dominated by coking coal, which is less affected by the price limit policy, and still has performance flexibility for the rise of coking coal price. In terms of growth, the company's 6 million ton capacity project of haizetan coal mine has recently been approved by the national development and Reform Commission, providing long-term growth potential. According to the performance forecast, we slightly raised the profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the forecast for 2022 / 2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 10.62 (previous value of 10.33) / 10.791136 million in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, with a year-on-year change of - 76.3% / + 1.5% / + 5.3%; EPS is 0.05 (previous value 0.05) / 0.05/0.05 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price, and PE is 37.2 / 36.7 / 34.8 times. We are optimistic about the steady development of the company's fundamentals in the future and maintain the "overweight" rating.
In 2021, the deduction of non performance increased greatly, and the volume and price of coking coal rose simultaneously, fearing the cost pressure of power business
According to the company's performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.04 ~ 1.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 76.8% ~ 73.2%, mainly due to the high base of income from large debt restructuring in 2020. Excluding the impact of non economic projects, it is expected to deduct non net profit of RMB 785 ~ 945 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 302% ~ 384%, realizing a significant increase in performance. Although the rising price of power coal in 2021 put pressure on the cost of power business, the sales volume and selling price of the company's coal sector increased significantly year-on-year, contributing to the growth of performance, and the complementary advantages of coal and electricity are prominent.
Haizetan coal mine has been approved by the national development and Reform Commission, and the scarcity of resources is prominent under the background of little increment in the industry
The company recently announced that the haizetan coal mine project (70% equity ratio) controlled by the company has been approved by the national development and Reform Commission, the coal mine construction conditions have been implemented, and the mining license and other relevant procedures will be handled in accordance with the procedures in the future. Haizetan coal mine is located in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, with an approved production capacity of 6 million tons, an equity production capacity of 4.2 million tons and a proven reserve of 1.14 billion tons. It mainly produces high-quality power coal and chemical coal. The importance of the project is prominent. It is a new coal mine project approved by the national energy administration according to the advanced production capacity. It is a key start-up project in Shaanxi Province in 2022. According to the company's announcement, the project is expected to contribute revenue / net profit of about 5 / 2 billion yuan when it reaches production capacity. After calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the project is expected to be about 1.4 billion yuan, which has excellent economic benefits. At present, in the context of double carbon goals, the overall willingness of coal enterprises to spend capital is weakened, the approval threshold of policies for new production capacity is raised, the increment of industrial production capacity is limited, and the scarcity of resources is becoming more and more prominent. According to the information of the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration, only 19.2 million tons of production capacity projects were approved in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 57%. It can be seen from the approval information in recent years that in the future, high-quality production capacity may be more concentrated in low-cost and efficient production areas such as Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, which is expected to resist the risk of downward demand in the long term.
Prompt: the risk of economic recovery is less than expected; Coal prices fell; The progress of new capacity lags behind expectations
