\u3000\u30003 Zhejiang Jinfei Kaida Wheel Co.Ltd(002863) 00286)
The performance of 2021q4 increased rapidly and its profitability was stable. The company released the performance express in 2021, realizing a revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, an increase of 41% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, an increase of 40% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits increased by 44% at the same time. The net interest rate was 16.7%, basically flat year-on-year. It is valuable to maintain steady profitability against the background of rising raw material prices. According to the announcement of the equity incentive plan issued by the company earlier, we expect the share based payment fee of the company to be about 38 million yuan in 2021 (21 million yuan in 2020). If the impact of share based payment is excluded, the performance of the company in 2021 will be about 210 million yuan, an increase of 46% at the same time. In 2021, Q4 achieved a revenue of 280 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 42% at the same time, significantly faster than Q3; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 34 million yuan, an increase of 275% at the same time, and Q4 performance accelerated significantly, mainly due to: 1) Q4 revenue achieved rapid growth in scale and accelerated performance; 2) In previous years, various expenses of the company were concentrated in Q4, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020q4 was only 9.13 million yuan. In order to obtain more accurate quarterly data, the company confirmed various expenses including share based payment quarterly, and the quarterly financial data were more stable, driving the rapid growth of 2021q4 performance. In 2021, China's "double double" series of policies continued to be issued. The company actively promoted product R & D, capacity expansion and opened up sales channels. It is expected to continue and expand rapidly in the future.
The smooth progress of microgrid business is expected to benefit from the development of new power systems. At present, in China, industrial and commercial electricity prices tend to rise, and the demand for user side energy efficiency management and intelligent power consumption continues to grow. The company is a leader in the integration of enterprise energy efficiency management system in China. At present, it has created a rich energy efficiency management software and hardware product matrix, which can provide "cloud edge end" one-stop service, and has outstanding ability to integrate the needs of users. Recently, the company has successfully established Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) microgrid Research Institute and launched the "source grid load storage and charging" microgrid management platform, focusing on solving the problems of information island, use difficulty, resource waste and lack of interaction faced by distributed new energy and household side energy storage in the landing process of industrial and commercial enterprises. With the smooth progress of the company's microgrid business and the continuous enhancement of the strength of relevant products, it is expected to continue to benefit from the development trend of new power system on the user side in the future.
The sales model continues to be optimized and has sufficient long-term expansion potential. The company has achieved complete coverage of the market through direct sales + distribution, online + offline, China + foreign ways, and continuously optimized the sales mode: 1) in terms of collection, the system integration business implements payment to delivery through hardware, and the software pays according to nodes according to the contract, so as to ensure a better cash flow of the company; 2) In terms of local services, in order to meet the needs of commissioning and installation services around the country, more than 100 dealers and local system integrators have been expanded to realize the "last mile" service; 3) In terms of sales volume, plan the expansion speed of personnel according to the development speed of local GDP, and focus on improving the per capita sales of sales; 4) In terms of selling products, we will upgrade from a single component in the past to the existing microgrid system scheme. Later, we will upgrade to selling microgrid industry solutions, and require salespeople to transform from business type to technology type; 5) Overseas, we have obtained product certification certificates from many regions, completed trademark registration in some countries, and basically covered developed countries through website construction. At present, we have successively undertaken overseas orders, and the overseas market can grow in the future.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 170 / 240 / 340 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 40% / 40% / 40%, EPS of 0.79/1.11/1.56 yuan respectively (CAGR of 40% from 2020 to 2023), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 39 / 28 / 20 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: risk of declining profitability, bad debt risk of accounts receivable, depreciation risk of fixed assets, etc.
