\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 507 Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) )
Event:
The company released the performance express for 2021. The annual revenue was 2.519 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.82%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 742 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.53%, and the net profit deducted was 694 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% and eps0.01% 87 yuan / share.
Key investment points:
The performance of Q4 exceeded expectations due to multiple factors such as price increase stimulation + advance preparation of goods for the Spring Festival. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 564 million yuan in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 238 million yuan in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%. The performance exceeded expectations. Among them, the accelerated growth of Q4 revenue was driven by many factors. 1) in November 2021, the company announced a price increase of 3% – 19% for various series of products, which stimulated the acceleration of channel goods preparation. At present, the transmission of price increase is relatively smooth, and the inventory remains at a normal level. 2) The time point of this year’s Spring Festival is ahead of schedule. It is expected that the stock before the festival will be more reflected in Q4. 3) Since 2021, the company has implemented the promotion method of “precision marketing”, strengthened the brand publicity and investment, and increased the resource investment of radish, seasoned vegetables and other new categories, which also boosted the growth of sales.
Price increase and fee reduction superimposed on financial income, and Q4 net interest rate increased significantly. The company’s Q4 net interest rate reached 42.2%, up 7.7pct year-on-year. The main reasons for the large increase in net interest rate are as follows: first, the brand publicity expenses were basically completed in the first three quarters, and Q4 reduced some advertising expenses; Second, after the price increase, the profit margin of the channel is thickened + goods preparation before the festival. The dealers have high enthusiasm for goods preparation, and the investment of channel expenses is reduced. In addition, the income from the company’s fixed increase fund financing also contributed to the growth of net interest rate.
Price increase effect + cost reduction + expense contraction, and the annual performance is expected to usher in elastic growth. Looking forward to 2022, considering the high base of Q1 last year, there may be some pressure on Q1 this year, but throughout the year, the company increases prices, thickens channel profits and has high channel enthusiasm. This year, the company upgraded the product packaging and changed the version, reduced the salt by 30% and went public. At the same time, it actively promoted the sinking of channels and the development of b-end channels. Coupled with the company’s brand influence as an industry leader, it is expected that the terminal dynamic sales will remain good. In terms of profit, the purchase price of green vegetables will fall back to about 800900 yuan (about 1300 yuan last year), and the comprehensive gross profit will be effectively improved, which is expected to be obvious in the second half of the year. In addition, the investment of the company’s brand publicity expenses will be more accurate this year, the investment intensity is expected to decrease year-on-year, and the certainty of annual profit elastic growth is high.
Profit forecast and investment rating. Considering that the Q4 profit performance in 2021 is better than expected, and under the resonance of multiple factors such as price increase, reduction of raw material cost and reduction of publicity expenses, the company’s performance elasticity growth in 2022 is highly certain, we expect the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 to be 0.84/1.09/1.26 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 37 / 29 / 25 times respectively. It is recommended for the first time and given the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning. 1) Low downstream demand; 2) The movable pin of the terminal is not as expected; 3) Food safety issues.
