\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Event overview: on February 26, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 213%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 501 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.25%; The company’s outstanding performance is mainly due to the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry. Under the accelerated expansion of large-scale silicon wafers, the permeability of carbon matrix composites continues to improve. The company’s production and sales are booming throughout the year, with an output of 170626 tons, a year-on-year increase of 251%; The sales volume reached 155299 tons, a year-on-year increase of 246%, exceeding market expectations. In terms of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 57.17%, down 5.67pcs year-on-year, mainly due to the rise in the price of carbon fiber raw materials in the second half of last year. In a single quarter, Q4 achieved a revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 226% and a month on month increase of 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 167 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 207% and a month on month increase of 28%.
Large scale supply remains tight and capacity continues to expand: on the whole, under the tide of large-scale silicon wafer production expansion, the company continues to scale up capacity expansion and form in-depth support for large customers. It has successively signed a framework agreement on the supply of carbon thermal field materials of RMB 1.6/4/5/10/4 billion with Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Qinghai Gaojing and Baotou Meike silicon, involving about 3900 tons of products, It will continue to effectively guarantee the downstream demand. At the same time, the company plans to increase the pure thermal field by more than 1500 tons, which is oriented to the forward-looking layout of n-type silicon wafer thermal field and semiconductor thermal field. N-type silicon wafer and semiconductor have higher requirements for the purity of thermal field in the preparation process, so as to ensure the quality of silicon wafer. The constant increase is expected to continue to consolidate the competitiveness of the company. At the same time, the penetration rate in the field of heater in the previous thermal field was low. The company made a breakthrough in the new thermal field heater in 2021. Through the optimization of the structural design of the heater, the resistance and current density were controllably adjusted, which extended the service life of the heater and is expected to promote the penetration rate of the heater.
The second growth curve is beginning to emerge and is expected to achieve rapid volume: the company builds a platform R & D enterprise around carbon matrix composites, and has layout in the fields of semiconductor, high-temperature heat treatment, automobile braking and hydrogen energy. In terms of hydrogen energy, the company uses the by-products in the production process and the same type of raw materials to engage in the product layout of related aspects, including hydrogen tail gas utilization, hydrogen storage bottle and carbon paper. It is expected to realize large-scale production in the second half of 2022; In terms of automotive carbon ceramic brake discs, the company continues to reduce the cost of products. At present, the introduction of carbon ceramic brake disc products into China’s leading car enterprises has been accelerated, and the verification has been successful. The on-board adaptability test has been completed in the head car enterprises. In the future, it is expected to take advantage of the advantages of light weight, good braking performance and long service life of products to seize the passenger car market and realize pulse volume.
R & D investment has increased significantly, and the introduction of talents has increased. In 2021, the company’s R & D expenses reached 64.97 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88%, and the number of R & D personnel reached 62, a year-on-year increase of 55%. The company has strengthened the introduction of R & D personnel, continuously optimized the talent introduction and talent training system, focused on advanced materials, carried out the development and market expansion of relevant diversified products, constantly enriched the types of products and maintained the competitiveness of the company in the industry.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.975 billion yuan, 3.001 billion yuan and 5.138 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 48% / 52% / 71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 692 million yuan, 913 million yuan and 1.452 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 38% / 32% / 59%, corresponding to the PE of 32x / 24x / 15x in 22-24 years. The competitiveness of the company’s main business continued to strengthen, and the second growth curve began to emerge, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the speed of capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
