\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 508 Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) )
Event: the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.148 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 24.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 19.7%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 19.6%. The company achieved a revenue of 3.077 billion yuan in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of + 23.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -08 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 101.5%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was -16 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 103.1%.
In the past 21 years, we have walked out of the trough and returned to medium and high-speed growth. The leading position of traditional categories is stable and the share is increasing. 1) Traditional category: according to ovicloud.com, the boss's double line sales of range hood in 21 years were 2.841/1.713 billion yuan (YoY + 23.2% / + 10.0%), and the sales share was 23.00% / 30.55% (YoY + 1.46 / + 2.26pct) respectively; The double line sales of gas stoves were 1.554841 billion yuan (YoY + 18.2% / + 14.4%), and the sales share was 20.91% / 29.27% (YoY + 2.95 / + 3.50pct) respectively. The sales of smoke stoves were tenacious and the leading position in the industry was stable. We expect that the growth rate of the company's cigarette range category will exceed 10% in 21 years. 2) Emerging categories: according to ovicloud, the double line sales volume of boss dishwasher is 243 / 306 million yuan (YoY + 120.9% / + 113.1%) respectively, and the sales volume share is 5.15% / 17.51% (YoY + 2.60 / + 7.94pct) respectively. Compared with Siemens double line share of -4.25 / - 14.56pct respectively in the same period, the domestic substitution trend of dishwasher industry has been established, and there is a large room to improve the penetration of benchmarking European and American markets, The follow-up companies are expected to benefit from the rapid development dividend of the track, drive the rapid growth of emerging categories and continue to contribute to the increment of long-term revenue. We expect that the boss's non smoke stove revenue will account for 30% + (26% in 20 years) in 2021.
The price of raw materials is high, the cost pressure remains, and the provision for bad debts has been sufficient. The impairment of the company's performance in 21 years was mainly due to the provision for bad debts. After the analysis and evaluation of the recoverability of the company's receivables, it is proposed to make a single provision for bad debts for some fine decoration business customers with difficult financial conditions. It is estimated that the total provision in 2021 will be about 710 million yuan, including about 630 million yuan for Evergrande group and its member enterprises and about 80 million yuan for other customers. We believe that the company's move is conducive to fully release the current risk expectations and has little impact on the company's fundamentals. Under the background of continuous improvement of operation, the boss is expected to usher in the double repair of valuation and performance, forming a new era. If excluding the impact of bad debt impairment loss and considering income tax, we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.938 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 16.7%, and a net interest rate attributable to the parent company of 19.10%, a year-on-year decrease of -1.34 PCT; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.66%, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 19.35%, a year-on-year increase of -2.15pct. Under the background of high raw material prices, the cost pressure of the company still exists.
Investment suggestion: the traditional category has recovered steadily + the second and third categories have continued to increase in volume. The company's 22-year development plan is clear. In the medium and long term, the incremental space of dishwashers is broad, and the company's product channels have significant advantages and sufficient growth momentum. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be 2.216/2.538 billion yuan (the previous value is 2.124/2.422 billion yuan), and the current stock price corresponds to 15.17x/13.24xpe in 22-23 years, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: there may be differences between the performance express data and the financial data audited by the accounting firm; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk, especially in the real estate market; Market competition risk; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Overseas business and exchange rate change risk; Risk of loss of human resources; Risks of engineering channel customers.
