Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (603986)
Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) released the estimated amount of related party transactions in 22 years, of which the private brand procurement OEM is expected to be 860 million (189 million actually occurred from January to November of 21 years), a significant increase year-on-year. The significant increase in OEM procurement means that the customer progress and sales channel of the company's self-developed DRAM are progressing smoothly, and the company has officially entered the explosive volume stage!
The revenue volume of self-developed DRAM is expected to reach RMB 1.6 ~ 1.76 billion. According to the company's prospectus (2016), the wafer cost accounted for about 80% of the total cost, and the sealing and testing cost accounted for 15 ~ 20% (at that time, the business was dominated by nor); in addition, the Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) prospectus (2020) disclosed that the wafer cost accounted for about 70% of the total cost, and the prospectus of Dongxin shares (2021) disclosed that the cost of the wafer factory accounts for about 80% of the total cost; we assume that the wafer cost accounts for about 70 ~ 80% of the total cost. We calculate the revenue: in the cost account of niche memory chips, the sealing and testing cost accounts for 25-30%, and the OEM cost accounts for 70-75%, that is, 860 million yuan of wafer procurement corresponds to about 1.15 ~ 1.23 billion yuan. Considering the low gross profit margin of DDR4 products in the initial stage, the comprehensive gross profit margin is 30% The corresponding income is 1.6 ~ 1.76 billion yuan.
Continuous high investment in R & D, and continuous breakthroughs in new product development and verification. 1) MCU explosive growth, domestic replacement at the right time! Under the background of extreme shortage of MCU in 21 years, the replacement of gd32 series products, which ranked first in 32 in China, accelerated, with a growth rate of more than 220%. 21h1 company has mass produced motor drive chips (applied to electric tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , industrial automation three-phase BLDC and PMSM motors) and power management chips (using TWS earphones, portable medical devices, etc.); and successfully developed the first generation WiFi products and the first generation low-power products of the wireless product line. 2) norflash vehicle specification level business is progressing well! Among them, the 2G high-capacity products of GD55 have passed the vehicle specification aecq-100 certification, the product line fully covers 2mb-2gb capacity, and the gd25 series has been adopted in batches in many vehicle enterprises! 3) the self-developed DRAM has been officially expanded and improved Big space! It has won orders and trust from DRAM customers in IPTV, security and consumer fields, laying a solid foundation for follow-up long-term cooperation.
MCU is expected to grow through the cycle in the long term. Understand the long-term growth of the company's MCU from three perspectives: 1) the MCU market scale is growing, and the growth of market space benefits competitive suppliers in the industry at the same time; 2) The demand for local supply chains around the world has increased, and the long-term layout of local supply chains is the general trend; 3) Customers recognize the company's existing products and are expected to continue cooperation in the future. Zhaoyi's product line is rich and perfect to achieve original growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB 8.329/11.589/14.712 billion and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.307/30.54/4.033 billion in 2021, 2022 and 2023, corresponding to pe4.3 billion 6X / 32.9x / 24.9x, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, and the progress of the new process is less than expected.
