Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) (300986)
The advantages of economy and environmental protection appear, and the aluminum formwork industry welcomes capacity expansion. Aluminum formwork is a kind of building formwork, which is mainly used for temporary support during pouring. At present, the permeability in high-rise buildings is 20-30%, Significantly lower than wood formwork (the overall penetration rate is about 50%). We believe that with the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend and the improvement of downstream customers' requirements for construction period, the advantages of aluminum formwork in economy and environmental protection in medium and high-rise buildings will be gradually reflected, and the penetration rate in buildings is expected to increase in the future. It is estimated that the industrial space is expected to exceed 64 billion yuan in 2025 (2020: 36.4 billion yuan), with sufficient expansion space.
Under the leasing mode, there are high requirements for fine management barriers and the improvement of concentration is the general trend. Under the background that the leasing mode has become the mainstream of aluminum formwork, the management chain of aluminum formwork enterprises is further extended, and multiple links such as drawing dismantling, mold matching, on-site service and recycling are expected to open the cost of aluminum formwork enterprises and downstream customers. We believe that with the expansion of the head enterprise, its cost advantage is expected to further expand, and its service radius and response capacity will also be improved. At the same time, aluminum template leasing belongs to the category of building materials with low value but great impact, which is naturally conducive to the improvement of concentration. Therefore, we believe that it is the general trend for the head enterprise to increase its market share in the future.
As a benchmark enterprise in the aluminum formwork industry, the expansion is accelerated under the "1 + n" strategy. The company has advanced the layout of the information system, realized the fine management of design, mold matching, turnover and other links, improved the efficiency of production and service, became the industry benchmark enterprise, and is expected to become the core beneficiary of industry capacity expansion + concentration. In addition, since 2019, the company has begun to expand the business of climbing frame and PC prefabricated parts. We judge that it has good synergy with the main business of aluminum formwork. While opening up the growth space of the company, it is also expected to further enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the company. Therefore, the company is expected to enter the stage of accelerated development.
Profit forecast. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be RMB 1.465/1.984/2.649 billion, eps1.5% 46 / 2.38/3.11 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 60.01 yuan on December 1, 41.0/25.2/19.3xpe. Give the company a target price of 71.40 yuan based on PE valuation method, and give a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk statement
Real estate regulation is stricter than expected, the cost is higher than expected, and there are systemic risks.
