Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) (688180)
China's leading innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, and the whole process development ability of new drugs has been verified. The company is a leading bio innovative pharmaceutical enterprise in China. Through independent R & D + cooperative introduction, the company has created a rich R & D pipeline, covering the five major diseases of tumor, metabolism, autoimmunity, anti infection and nerve, involving major drug forms such as monoclonal antibody, double antibody and ADC. At present, the neutralizing antibodies of PD-1 monoclonal antibody treprizumab and etesver covid-19 have been approved. Adalimumab is in the market review stage, and PARP inhibitor, bevacizumab and PCSK9 inhibitor are in the phase III clinical stage. A new generation of IO targets such as BTLA, tigit and trop2 are widely distributed in the early clinical stage. The company has built a whole process innovative drug development capability and is making steady progress towards platform biopharma.
PD-1 monoclonal antibody has great commercial potential, and the three strategies establish differentiated advantages. PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody is becoming the cornerstone therapy of tumor treatment. The market prospect is broad, but the competition is also fierce, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) is expected to highlight the encirclement through three strategies: 1) advancing to the front, the strongest auxiliary new auxiliary layout: Junshi is in the leading position in the layout of auxiliary new auxiliary indications for large cancer species, new auxiliary for lung cancer and auxiliary for liver cancer, Neoadjuvant therapy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in the first place in China. The treatment method of neoadjuvant therapy will be gradually accepted by Chinese doctors and patients. At present, it is still a blue ocean market competing with PD-1; 2) The indications are widely distributed, and the first-line treatment declaration is about to enter the outbreak period: the first-line, second-line and third-line nasopharyngeal carcinoma and second-line urothelial carcinoma will be approved in 2021. At the same time, the first-line esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has been submitted to NDA and accepted. The clinical data of first-line NSCLC, first-line liver cancer and first-line esophageal squamous cell carcinoma have been published. In 2022, a number of indications will usher in the milestone of data readout and declaration. At the same time, through self-development and cooperation, trepril will be used as the cornerstone drug of combination. 3) Expand the market, go overseas and sink the grass-roots level: in February 2021, the company authorized the North American rights and interests of treprizumab to coherus. In February, the company and AstraZeneca became the promotion cooperation in China. The two cooperation will broaden the market scope of trepril and make tuoyi cover more patients.
Covid-19 neutralizing antibody returns well; The innovation pipeline is advancing steadily, and the license out has broad prospects. Js016 is a covid-19 neutralizing antibody developed by the company in cooperation with the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The cocktail therapy combined with Lilly ly-cov555 shows significant curative effect and is effective for mutant strains. In the case of repeated global epidemics, government orders continue to increase; The company has a rich layout of innovative frontier targets. Js004 is the first anti BTLA monoclonal antibody in the world. At present, clinical trials are carried out in China and the United States; The company widely distributes target pipelines of global FIC such as cd112r, CD39 and CD93, with great license out potential. The company has established a rich product matrix and formed a multi-level layout with tripley as the core and a variety of innovation targets and technologies.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.273 billion yuan, 3.716 billion yuan and 3.470 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 168%, - 13% and - 6.6% respectively. We use DCF method to value the company's product pipeline, assuming that the discount rate is 7.00% and the sustainable growth rate is 2%. Considering the R & D success rate and listing progress of different products and indications, the market value of the corresponding company in 2021 is about 62.77 billion yuan. The company has rich innovative drug pipeline and strong product development ability. It has the potential to grow into a platform biopharma. It is covered for the first time and is rated "buy".
Risk warning events: the risk that the product R & D and listing are not as expected, the risk that the product sales are not as expected, the risk of policy uncertainty, and the risk that the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in time.
