Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) (300729)
The online results are brilliant, and China's "double 11" resonates with foreign "Black 5"
China's "double 11": in the case of power restriction and rising raw material prices, the company emphasizes product structure, price and profit in the "double 11" marketing planning, so the promotion is less than "618". According to the company's recent research record of receiving investors, Gmv's whole network sales increased significantly year-on-year during the "double 11" period, and the customer unit price has increased the most in recent years; In terms of similar ranking, the lifting table ranks first in JD & tmall, the learning table ranks fifth in JD, and tmall ranks in the top 20 (19th).
Overseas "black five": according to Adobe analytics data, Amazon's "black five" sales increased negatively year-on-year; Due to the adverse competitive environment such as Amazon title and inventory backlog, music and song still achieved remarkable results during the "black five" period: 1) the product structure was continuously optimized, and the proportion of linear driven lifting table was increased to 76%; 2) The products rank first, and flexispot, an overseas independent brand of music and song, ranks first in Amazon's lifting table category; 3) The customer unit price increased by 8.45%, benefiting from the increase in the proportion of dual motor (high-end) products; 4) the overall user traffic increased by 62% year-on-year, and the conversion rate increased by 23%, of which the conversion rate of independent stations increased by 34.5% year-on-year.
On the one hand, based on the excellent performance of the "black five", on the other hand, considering the relative pressure on the overseas consumption environment, we believe that with our own efforts, the growth rate of Q4 will rise slightly compared with Q3.
Steady progress has been made offline, and China's first ergonomics experience Museum has appeared
On November 27, the company's first ergonomic Experience Hall in China was unveiled in Ningbo yifenghui shopping center, with immersive experience halls such as "body health", "helping growth" and "innovative design", which fully demonstrated the scientific and technological power of ergonomic products: high customization & high memory, sedentary reminder, retreat in case of resistance, constant lifting, high visualization, etc.
In addition, the smart home scene is also greatly innovated in the museum. It shows the diversified application scenarios of music and song smart home products through intelligent lifting table, intelligent lifting coffee table and intelligent lifting bed, so as to bring users a product experience of "understanding human nature" and creating space.
Product category expansion, intelligent electric bed may open the second growth curve for the company
According to statista data, the penetration rate of intelligent electric bed in the United States is only 11%, and there is a large market space. Based on the advantages of linear drive technology, lege launched intelligent electric lift bed products, which are expected to be launched simultaneously in Amazon and independent stations in the future, and layout overseas offline business supermarket channels at the same time. It is expected that with the gradual release of the demand for electric lifting beds, relying on the advantages of overseas channels and brands, lese is expected to realize the rapid and large-scale production of intelligent electric lifting beds and open the second growth curve.
Profit forecast and valuation
The growth power of the company comes from the two-way development of the smart and healthy home market at home and abroad around the linear drive technology in a branded way. Overseas warehouse public service is also another growth highlight of the company under the catalysis of industrial dividends. It is estimated that the company's revenue in the year of 21 / 22 / 23 will be 2957 / 4287 / 5836 million, with a year-on-year increase of 52.37% / 44.96% / 36.14%; The net profit was 191 / 301 / 525 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 12.21% / 57.74% / 74.56%. The current market value is RMB 6.654 billion, with a P / E ratio of 37.04/23.48/13.45x. In the future, as the macro environment returns to normal (especially sea freight), the company's profitability will have strong repair flexibility. The company's normal valuation center should reflect overseas e-commerce dividends and smart and healthy home category dividends at the same time. With reference to the brand enterprise valuation system, the current underestimation is obvious and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: repeated overseas epidemics, exchange rate, sea freight and raw material price fluctuation risk
