Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132)
Event overview
Carlsberg heavy beer, the holding subsidiary of the company, plans to build a new production base with an annual production capacity of 500000 kiloliters of beer in Sanshui District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, with a fixed asset investment of about 1.03 billion yuan, and establish Carlsberg Foshan company in Foshan City. Xichang company, a subsidiary of Carlsberg heavy beer, plans to invest in the expansion of production capacity from 38000 kiloliters to 110000 kiloliters, with an investment of about 102 million yuan.
Analysis and judgment:
With the completion of asset injection and integration, heavy beer has grown from a regional beer enterprise to a national beer enterprise, which puts forward higher requirements for production capacity, market channels, supply chain network, marketing promotion and management efficiency.
Step up capacity reserve and promote nationwide distribution
In the past two years, the company's medium and high-grade beer represented by Wusu has grown rapidly. In order to match the market demand and national layout, the company has built a new production capacity of 130000 kiloliters in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province to meet the production needs of Wusu. The company will further build a capacity of 500000 kiloliters in Foshan and expand the capacity of Xichang company, which will help: 1) support the national expansion of medium and high-end products such as Wusu. This year, the company launched new production capacity in East China, South China and southwest China respectively to make up for the production capacity gap, superimpose the company's dominant position in the western market, and further improve the nationwide production capacity layout; 2) Save logistics costs and improve supply chain efficiency. It is estimated that Yancheng's 130000 kiloliter capacity will save about 30 million freight for the company. After the completion of Foshan large factory, it is expected to save a greater amount of transportation cost, optimize the allocation of supply chain resources and improve operation efficiency; 3) Improve the overall profitability of the company. Compared with other factories, the production process and efficiency of the new Foshan plant will be improved, which is expected to further improve the production efficiency and reduce the manufacturing cost. On the other hand, the new production capacity of 500000 tons will be increased by more than 15% compared with the company's existing production capacity, and the production of medium and high-grade products will increase the company's revenue and profit scale.
The growth of large items is not over, Carlsberg continues to set sail 27
The rapid development of heavy beer in the past two years is inseparable from the explosive growth of Wusu outside Xinjiang. Wusu has rapidly improved its brand popularity nationwide with excellent quality, unique tonality and rapid regional expansion. Wusu's expansion outside Xinjiang is not over, With the further optimization of organization (adjustment of regional division) + production capacity (technical transformation in Xinjiang and new addition outside Xinjiang) + market (extending from big cities to the whole market) + brand (online red brand, matrix Marketing) + price increase + product matrix (Loulan secret brewing and small bottles), Wusu is expected to become another large beer product with a capacity of more than one million tons in China and continuously improve its scale.
In Carlsberg's high-end brand matrix, there are still international high-end brands such as 1664, Xia Rifan and Greenberg, and strong brands with regional characteristics such as Chongqing, Xixia and Fenghuaxueyue. They have reserved a rich brand portfolio for continuous growth. They will continue to "sail 27" in the next five years to promote high-end products, promote the continuous innovation of sales model and the continuous improvement of supply chain efficiency, Improve the profit quality and industry market share of heavy beer.
Profit forecast
We adjusted the forecast of the company's operating revenue of 13.514/15.86/16.290 billion yuan in the year 21-23 to 13.359/15.86/17.290 billion yuan, and adjusted the EPS 2.5 billion yuan in the year 21-23 The forecast of 65 / 3.25/3.77 yuan is 2.30/2.96/3.67 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 147.22 yuan / share on December 2, 2021, and PE is 64 / 50 / 40 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk statement
The price of raw materials rose, industry competition intensified, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
