Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594)
Event overview:
On December 4, the company released the automobile sales express in November 2021. In November, the company sold 98340 cars wholesale, a year-on-year increase of + 82.3%. Among them, 91219 new energy vehicles, 241.8% year-on-year; 7121 fuel vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 73.9%. Meanwhile, the total installed capacity of the company’s new energy vehicle power battery and energy storage battery in November was about 4.883gwh, a month on month increase of + 7.2%.
Analysis and judgment:
Production and sales continued to grow at a high mom, waiting for the accelerated landing of new capacity
The sales volume increased month on month, and the production capacity was overloaded. In November, the company sold 97242 passenger vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 84.1% and a month on month increase of + 9.4%. Among them, 91219 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 241.8% and a month on month increase of + 12.6%, and 7121 fuel vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of – 73.9% and a month on month increase of – 19.9%. Compared with passenger cars + 12.5% and new energy + 14.0% in October, the month on month growth rate decreased slightly. Meanwhile, the output of new energy passenger vehicles was + 12.66% month on month, slightly lower than the month on month growth rate of 14.99% in October. We judge that the main reason is that the capacity utilization rate of the company’s Xi’an plant exceeds 100%, and the marginal expansion speed has decreased. The company’s new Changzhou plant is expected to achieve mass production in December, with a total design capacity of 200000 vehicles / year. In addition, with the launch of new vehicle capacity in Fuzhou, Hefei, Jinan, Zhengzhou and other places in 2022, the company’s capacity expansion is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the company’s single vehicle profit is expected to continue to improve with the tight balance between production and sales and the decline of sales preferences. It is expected that the annual production and sales scale is expected to exceed 750000 vehicles and the monthly production and sales may exceed 110000 vehicles.
The sales of new energy models are hot, and the production and sales are expected to exceed 100000 in December. Among the new energy passenger vehicles, the company sold 46137 pure electric vehicles in November, with a year-on-year increase of + 153.2% and a month on month increase of + 11.9%, and 43984 plug-in hybrid vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 499.8% and a month on month increase of + 13.4%. At present, the company has 200000 + orders in hand, and with the release of new models, the number of blind orders for song prodm-i launched on November 30 exceeded 10000, and the number of orders on the first day after the official opening of the night exceeded 18000. It is expected that the cumulative orders within the year may exceed 30000.
New brand, new marketing “dolphin” hot sale, yuan plus
“Dolphin” sales continued to rise, E3 0 platform highlights its advantages. The company’s “dolphin” products are based on E3 The unique advantages of the 0 platform, It has unique advantages in appearance (Longyan 3.0, high axle length ratio), endurance (heat pump) and power (eight in one powertrain). Since its listing, the sales volume has continued to rise, reaching 8809 vehicles in November, with a month on month increase of + 46.4%. In addition, the first class a trendy SUV of E platform 3.0 will be officially launched for pre-sale on January 22, and the new car adopts Byd Company Limited(002594) The latest dragonface3 0 design language, and based on E3 0 platform has the advantages of vehicle and chassis design space, and the appearance effect has been greatly improved. At the same time, in addition to the new technologies in relevant fields of dolphin application, the new car will also use the integrated design of battery and body to create an exclusive power transmission path for pure electricity and improve the rigidity of the whole vehicle. At the same time, the new car is also expected to become Byd Company Limited(002594) a further breakthrough in significantly strengthening user orientation since dolphin. Innovative marketing means such as tide play and modification may significantly improve the company’s relative weakness in brand promotion and user operation.
Investment advice
The company relies on DM-I and E3 0 two advanced technology platforms, the iteration speed of models and the probability of popular models have been significantly improved, and the inflection point of new production capacity and new models is imminent. At the same time, the company’s supply chain security capability has repeatedly been tested by industrial force majeure and successfully demonstrated strong stability, which can better cope with the tight supply of upstream components and batteries with the continuous listing of new models and the arrival of the peak season of the industry demand side. The company is facing the inflection point of sales growth. We maintain the last profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2292.3/2789.4/333.84 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.07/81.1/11.96 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.74/2.79/4.11 yuan, the corresponding closing price of 306.9 yuan / share on December 4, 2021, and the PE will be 176 / 110 / 75 times respectively, maintaining the overweight rating.
Risk statement
Capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downside risk of auto market; Sales of new models were lower than expected.
