Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co.Ltd(600458) (600458)
Main points:
Reform of central enterprises: deepen the market-oriented operation mechanism, first mentioned in the semi annual report, stimulate the enthusiasm of key employees and boost business vitality
Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) in the "14th five year plan" target, it is proposed to take rail transit equipment as the core, wind power equipment, new energy vehicles and new materials as important growth poles, as well as the "one core, three poles and multiple points" business structure of several business growth points. As the new material industry platform of CRRC, the company ranks first in the world for vibration and noise reduction of rail transit and second in the country for the scale of wind power blade industry, The scale of automobile damping field ranks third in the world. Under the new strategic background, the company's position in the group may be greatly improved.
Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) comprehensively deepen the reform of market-oriented operation mechanism, and its enterprises flexibly carry out medium and long-term incentives. Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co.Ltd(600458) this year's semi annual report first mentioned "stimulating the enthusiasm of key employees in various ways" to fully mobilize the vitality of the management.
Rail transit sector: Rail Transit shock absorption business has developed steadily and expanded to the high-profile industrial shock absorption field
Rail transit shock absorption business is booming in the foreign market and steadily in the Chinese market; The introduction of mandatory policies has led to a high degree of industrial prosperity. The company has adjusted its organizational structure to focus on the field of industrial vibration reduction and isolation. In 2020, 150 million new orders for building earthquake resistance were added, and the capacity utilization rate of building vibration isolation products reached 99.68%.
Wind power sector: high prosperity of the track, coordinated development of the industrial chain, digital and new material enabled blades, and high growth certainty
Under the guidance of the declaration of carbon neutrality, the wind power installation center is expected to move up to more than 50gw during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the prosperity of the track is high. The sales volume of wind power blades of the company ranks second in China, and the customer structure at home and abroad is excellent. In recent years, the company has actively reduced costs and increased efficiency by means of digital chemical plant and research and development of polyurethane material blades. It is expected that the performance will be improved in 2022.
The parent company of the group listed the wind power sector as a pillar business. In 2020, the sales revenue of the group's wind power business was RMB 32.335 billion. As the second largest blade manufacturer, the company benefited from the growing demand for wind power blades of the parent company. From 2018 to 2021h1, the company's internal sales revenue to the group reached RMB 993 million, RMB 1607 million, RMB 2959 million and RMB 1498 million respectively, accounting for 8.28%, 14.29%, 19.62% and 19.64% of the company's revenue respectively, showing an upward trend year by year.
Automobile sector: strategic transformation, profitability improvement
The automobile industry chain tends to develop steadily and transform to new energy structurally. From 2018 to 2020, the proportion of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile output in the total automobile output increased from 4.51% to 5.20%. The company actively adjusted the product structure, increased the research and development of new energy, lightweight and other damping products, and has entered the supply chain of electric vehicle products of first-line brands in China and abroad; CRRC, the controlling shareholder, has strategically taken shares in Borg, Germany, to support new material Germany in building low-cost regional production capacity and developing business in China. The overall profitability of the automotive business is expected to improve.
New materials: Aramid technology market breakthrough, high strategic value, welcome import substitution
The company continues to promote the reserve and incubation of a series of new polymer material projects. Aramid paper has achieved technological breakthroughs, and some achievements have been applied in batch in aerospace and other fields such as "Tiangong" space station, Fuxing and harmony EMUs to realize localization substitution. From 2019 to 2020, the company's aramid products achieved revenue of 20.23 million yuan and 30.02 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 600% and 48% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 57.65 million yuan, The annual growth is expected to more than double. With the introduction of war investment, the plate will usher in the acceleration of development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
At present, the gross profit margin of the wind power sector continues to decline due to the high raw materials and the continuous decline of bidding prices. With the correction of raw material prices, the increase of finished product prices and the implementation of cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, the gross profit margin is expected to rise; Due to the lack of core, rising prices of raw materials and high overseas labor costs, the automobile sector has continued to suffer losses in recent years, but the range of losses has narrowed. With the implementation of measures such as the transfer of orders to low-cost factories and the expansion of sales share in the Asian market, the profitability of this sector will be improved; At present, the rail transit sector still maintains steady growth, which is the "ballast" of the company's performance, and industrial shock absorption is a new growth point; Due to the long investment cycle, the new material sector still has a certain loss. The company has introduced strategic investors into the supply chain of relevant companies, with prominent scale effect and significantly narrowed loss rate, and will enter the profit channel. We expect the growth rate of the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be - 3.9%, 15.6% and 14.3% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company to be - 39.9%, 136.3% and 52.3% respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 47x, 20x and 13X respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Risk of continuous rise of raw material end of wind power blade; The risk of repeated epidemic and depression of the automobile industry; The risk that the promotion of industrial shock absorption products is not as expected; The new material market has insufficient awareness of domestic products and the sales volume is less than expected.
