Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155)
Event: the company released its business profile in November 2021. In November, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 20.056 billion yuan, yoy-30.99%; The contracted sales area is 2133300 square meters, yoy-15.35%. From January to November, the cumulative contract sales amount was 212.967 billion yuan, yoy-3.16%; The accumulated sales area is 20.9632 million square meters, yoy 3.5 million square meters 32%。
Single month sales fell by double digits year-on-year, and the cumulative sales price rose month on month
In November, the company realized a contract sales amount of 20.056 billion yuan, yoy-30.99%, mom-9.26%; The contracted sales area was 2133300 square meters, yoy-15.35%, mom-14.32%; The corresponding average sales price was 9401 yuan / m2, yoy-18.47%, up 525 yuan / m2 month on month. From January to November, the total contract sales amount was 212.967 billion yuan, yoy-3.16%, an increase of 10.4% over January to October; The accumulated sales area is 20.9632 million square meters, yoy 3.5 million square meters 32%, an increase of 11.33% over January October; The corresponding cumulative average sales price is 10159 yuan / m2, yoy-6.27%. In November, the volume and price of a single month achieved a double-digit decline year-on-year. In terms of month on month performance, the overall volume fell, and the sales amount fell slightly month on month.
New projects in a single month are mainly in the third tier cities around the Bohai Sea and below, and the equity ratio has increased
In November, a new land project was added, which is the plot of Rizhao City, Shandong Province; Divided into third tier cities and below according to urban energy level; According to the economic circle, it belongs to the Bohai rim. In November, the newly added projects covered an area of 1343.17 square meters in a single month, compared with 869800 square meters in the same period last year; The new planned construction area is 3357.93 square meters, and the planned construction area in the same period last year is 2261300 square meters; The new total land price was 5.7 million yuan, up from 11.668 billion yuan in the same period last year; The new equity premium was 5.7 million yuan, up from 8.088 billion yuan in the same period last year; It can be seen that the new construction area, planned construction area, new total land price and new equity land price in November decreased significantly compared with the same period last year; The corresponding equity ratio in November 2021 is 100%.
The company’s land acquisition efforts are reduced
In November, the land acquisition strength and equity land acquisition strength in a single month were 0.02% and 0.02% respectively. The average floor price of new projects in November was 1697.47 yuan / m2, and the proportion of single month floor price / single month average sales price was 18.06%. In November 2021, the number of land acquired by the company was 1, and the planned use was commercial land. In the same period last year, the number and planned use of land acquired by the company were: 4 residential land, 3 commercial and residential land, 2 residential land, 3 residential and commercial land, and 1 residential land. The number of companies taking land has decreased.
Investment suggestion: under the background of the slowdown of the real estate industry and the superposition of “three red lines”, the performance growth of real estate enterprises is under pressure. From January to November 2021, the company’s cumulative sales amount and sales area increased compared with that from January to October 2021. Combined with the company’s operating performance, we believe that the company’s operating situation is expected to be further improved. Based on this, we estimate that the net profit of the company in 21-23 years is 18.083 billion yuan, 20.631 billion yuan and 22.792 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 4.06x, 3.56x and 3.22x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tip: house prices fell sharply; The macro-economy is less than expected; Sales fell short of expectations
