Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (002568)
Event: Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) issued the draft restricted stock incentive plan for 2021. It is proposed to grant 3 million restricted shares (accounting for 0.4% of the total share capital) to the incentive object, including 2.4 million shares for the first time and 600000 shares reserved; the first grant price is 30.34 yuan / share.
Wide incentive range and effective binding of core talents. The total number of incentive objects granted for the first time in the incentive plan is 227, Including companies (including subsidiaries) core managers, core technicians and key business personnel. The incentive objects do not include independent directors, supervisors, shareholders or actual controllers who individually or jointly hold more than 5% of the company’s shares and their spouses, parents and children. The total number of incentive objects granted by the equity incentive plan in 2017 was 80 for the first time, and the incentive scope is wider this time. The grant price is per share The share price is 30.34 yuan. Considering the current stock price level of the company, the incentive is sufficient to help the company continue to expand. We believe that this incentive enhancement binds the company’s core employees and is expected to help the company grow in the long run.
The performance appraisal objectives highlight the company’s confidence in long-term development. The assessment objectives for the three selling periods of restricted shares granted for the first time in the incentive plan are as follows: Taking the operating income in 2021 as the base, the growth rate of operating income in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 shall not be less than 25% / 53.75% / 84.50% respectively, corresponding to the year-on-year growth rate of operating income in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 of 25% / 23% / 20%. The company’s performance growth target is relatively stable, which helps to ensure the company’s high-quality development and build Changhong brand. From the recent channel tracking situation, the terminal dynamic sales of each series of products are good, slightly drunk, strong and cool maintain rapid growth, and the growth rate of glass bottles is improved; The establishment of outlets has been steadily promoted, laying a solid foundation for next year’s performance growth. In general, the achievement of next year’s performance objectives is highly certain.
The promotion of new products continues to advance, and the future performance is worth looking forward to. In terms of products, the new product is fresh and positioned as the basic model, forming a gap in terms of price band (5.9 yuan), alcohol (5 degrees) and product characteristics (aerated cocktail), so as to effectively avoid mutual substitution between products. At present, the fresh and natural dynamic sales are better and are in the stage of market promotion. With the subsequent new product promotion activities, the product is expected to grow rapidly, so as to broaden the target consumer group of the brand. The company is also actively developing other categories. In September, it launched a new plum wine, meizhimei, to cut into the fruit wine track which is also in rapid development. We believe that the company has strong ability to create single products, and the performance of new products deserves attention.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: pre blending is a high-quality track in the food and beverage track. Bairun, as the industry leader, has long-term growth potential. We maintain Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is RMB 806 / 1093 / 1474 million respectively, equivalent to EPS of RMB 1.07/1.46/1.97 from 2021 to 2023 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 53x / 39x / 29x from 2021 to 2023 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the intensity of marginal competition in the industry is higher than expected; The rise in raw material costs was higher than expected.
