Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (002304)
Event: We recently tracked the company's channels and updated our views as follows:
The channel is in good condition and begins to prepare for the coming year. According to channel feedback, by the end of September this year, the company basically completed the tasks at the beginning of the year, and most areas in Jiangsu Province completed the tasks of the whole year after the Mid Autumn Festival. From the perspective of sales caliber, it is estimated that the sales volume will increase by more than 20% in 21 years. Meng6 + has a strong performance and maintains a high growth in the province. The performance of meng3 crystal version is relatively stable, and Shuanggou has a rapid growth rate, which is estimated to increase by about 40%. At present, the spring festival goods preparation period is gradually entering, and the dealers feed back that the payment and goods preparation work in 2022 has been started in November, It is required to complete 50% of the annual tasks in the Spring Festival peak season of 22 years (about 40% in previous years), the manufacturer also has certain market cost support during the Spring Festival. From the perspective of channel inventory, the past de inventory work has achieved remarkable results. The off-season inventory in the province is within one month, and the inventory level is about one month to one and a half months by the end of November. The channel profit has also improved significantly. The profit of crystal dream dealers and tobacco hotels is significantly thicker than that of the old version of dream 3, and the channel is active The company is expected to make a good start in the peak Spring Festival season in 2022.
Promote the dual brand strategy, and the "Yanghe + Shuanggou" dual wheel drive can be expected. 1) Yanghe: the growth potential of dream 6 + in the province has been verified. At present, the price band of 600 yuan is the mainstream price band for the upgrading of business scenarios in the province, and there is no large-scale competitive product. It is expected that dream 6 + will still be the main contribution to the growth in the province in 22 years. There is a large expansion space outside the province. The company has increased the investment of resources, and further attention should be paid to the expansion progress outside the province in the future. Crystal dream faces four open and other competitive products, and its performance has been relatively stable in 21 years. It is expected that the Spring Festival in 22 years will continue to verify the iterative effect of upgrading. The development space outside the province of sky blue and sea blue is higher. The new version of sky blue will be on the market soon and will take a certain time to operate. Sea blue is also expected to be upgraded and revised. 2) Shuanggou: over the past 21 years, the company has significantly increased its development of Shuanggou, established an independent Shuanggou sales company and upgraded its products, At present, Junfang accounts for a high proportion in Shuanggou product system (price 100-200 yuan). Recently, the company has focused on promoting high-end and sub high-end products such as Toupai Su wine and Lvsu wine, and the sales from January to September have more than doubled year-on-year. Shuanggou has a historical background, has high consumer recognition in the province, and is expected to tap the potential of famous wine in the future, compete with Yanghe brand, and jointly improve the market share of the joint-stock company.
With the promotion of domestic and foreign reforms, dividends are expected to be released. The company has also made positive adjustments at the management side. In addition to the equity incentives previously implemented, the internal salary assessment has been optimized, emphasizing sharing development achievements with employees, improving team enthusiasm, enabling young backbone business front-line personnel, and enhancing personnel layout in key markets outside the province. Externally, the company attaches importance to the maintenance of manufacturer relations, promotes the channel reform of "one supplier first and multi supplier matching", tilts the investment of resources and expenses to large merchants, and multi merchants play the role of assisting and supplementing group purchase channels. In addition, the company has strengthened the management and contact of dealers and business personnel, so as to stabilize the channel order and build a new manufacturer relationship.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the net profit forecast of 7.73/97.5/11.29 billion in 2021-23, the corresponding EPS is 5.13/6.47/7.49 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 34 / 27 / 24 times. The valuation level has a margin of safety, the performance growth under the release of reform dividends has the potential to accelerate, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the competition inside and outside the province intensifies, and the performance of crystal dream and Shuanggou in 2022 is lower than expected.
