Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical And Electronic Co.Ltd(300695) (300695)
Hub bearing leading enterprises, product iteration, price center, epidemic impact subsided, performance V-shaped reversal
The company is a leading supplier of automotive hub bearings in China, and its products are constantly upgraded. The iteration of the first, second and third generations of automotive hub bearings promotes the upward movement of the company's product price center. The company focuses on the R & D and manufacturing unit of automobile wheel hub bearing, accounting for 96% of the revenue in 2020. It specializes in the new strategic layout, which makes the company's three fees low and its profitability continuously enhanced. The impact of the epidemic gradually weakened, the existing raw materials gradually returned to normality, and the profitability hit the bottom and rebounded. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 41.9%, and the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company will be 57.5%.
Stabilize the overseas aftermarket and expand China's front market. Am + OEM dual wheel drive company has entered a new round of high growth
The company is mainly oriented to the after-sales high-end market in North America. Through traders and independent brand manufacturers, the company entered autozone, Napa, advance and WJB among the well-known auto parts chains in the United States, and established good cooperation with foreign well-known parts manufacturers such as huimen, SKF and Delphi. In 2020, the overseas revenue accounted for 77%. At present, the concentration of overseas hub bearing am market is still low. With the high cost performance of its products and the continuous research and development of new products, the company's market share is expected to continue to rise, and the after-sales business income is expected to maintain a high growth rate. The accumulation of the company's after-sales market, R & D, production and customers for many years is expected to become a strong guarantee for the company to enter the OEM market. At present, it has become a supplier of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles such as hande axle, Valin automobile, Southeast automobile and brilliance automobile. It has entered BAIC point B for supply, obtained the fixed point of Byd Company Limited(002594) commercial vehicles, and is actively in contact with other mainstream joint ventures and independent vehicle manufacturers. Based on the AM market and the OEM market as the main growth point, the follow-up company has entered a new round of high growth period in the revenue of the two wheel drive company of pre-sales + after-sales business.
Layout the new energy "track", optimize the customer structure, and usher in the acceleration period of new energy business revenue
The new energy axle is gradually developing in the direction of lightweight, intelligent and lifelong maintenance free. The company continues to improve its axle products, develops new energy bridges for light and medium-sized commercial vehicles above 3T, and combines the research and development of three electric products. Establish a joint venture with Shaanxi Automobile Group to cut into the field of new energy. The company's new energy axle customers include two new energy logistics vehicle manufacturers, Ruichi and Chery, which respectively occupy the first and third place in the sales of new energy logistics vehicles in 2020. The products have strong market competitiveness and high growth in the electric vehicle industry. It is expected that the company's business is expected to usher in an acceleration period.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 676 / 1124 / 1362 million and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 129 / 249 / 320 million from 2021 to 2023. The current market value corresponds to 32 / 16 / 13 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. The company's valuation is lower than 32 times the average valuation level of Shenwan parts sector in 2021 (wind unanimously predicted). With the continuous promotion of the company's new energy and OEM business, as a leading parts company, it is expected to enjoy a valuation premium, cover it for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk statement
The price fluctuation of raw materials leads to low gross profit margin, less than expected expansion of new products, overseas epidemic risk, exchange rate risk, etc.
