Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: the company issued an announcement because of the possible risks caused by insufficient strength of steering knuckle, Tesla to NHTSA (Highway Safety Administration) filed an application to recall 826 model y vehicles produced from June 2020 to November 2021 in the United States. For the same reason, Tesla plans to recall 21600 model y vehicles produced from February 2021 to October 2021 in China. The product is directly supplied to Tesla by the company. The main defect is the insufficient water level in the quenching tank of a heat treatment production line.
The company attaches great importance to and responds quickly, improves product line rectification, and the scope of this recall is limited, which will not affect the company's performance and subsequent business. 1) With the improvement of quality awareness and responsibility awareness of OEMs and the continuous improvement of vehicle recall system, the recall frequency of automobile industry is increasing, 2020 United States (complete vehicle + parts) has recalled 50 million + pieces, and 6.78 million vehicles have been recalled in China. This recall belongs to the scope of normal quality control. 2) the company attaches great importance to this recall, establishes a problem handling and response Committee, responds quickly to customer needs 24 hours, and provides 132 handheld rapid detection equipment for customer service centers around the world, which can quickly detect the recalled vehicles Conduct quality judgment; 3) Complete the rectification and improvement of the heat treatment production line to ensure that the products are fully quenched, and test the hardness of the products by 200%. 4) The recall is limited to model y models. According to the company's calculation, the defect proportion in the recalled vehicles is about 0.2% - 1.0%. According to the recall quantity and defect proportion, it is estimated that the recall is a non major event, which will not affect the annual operating performance or the company's business.
Accelerate the transformation strategy of digital chemical plant, realize all-round digital error proofing and digital implementation of production management, release a new generation of ibs-pro products, and establish a complete R & D system for automobile chassis products. 1) Tuopu officially launched the development strategy of digital chemical plant, and will invest a huge amount of money in the next year to accelerate the implementation of digital chemical plant strategy, Around automation + management, it + top manufacturing system (TPS) build a digital chemical plant with the concept of instrumentalization. Through the application of a large number of machine vision and AI quality inspection technologies, product defects can be automatically identified and locked, and class a traceability in the whole process can be realized to ensure reliable product quality; 2) release a new ibs-pro product. After four generations of product iterations, the company has completed the R & D, calibration and inspection of a complete set of IBS intelligent braking system The new ibspro series products are finally released, which have the advantages of high integration + compact structure + fast pressure building speed + high energy recovery rate. Based on IBS technology system, the company has gone deep into many high-end industry fields, such as electric power steering system, active rear wheel steering system, electric regulating pipe column, heat management system pump valve, air suspension integrated inflation and control unit.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the recall has limited impact on the company's performance and subsequent business. The company continues to promote new project R & D and capacity layout. Tier 0.5 model has gradually been recognized by intelligent electric vehicle enterprises, and the mitigation of adverse factors in the industry has promoted the further release of the company's performance. We maintain the performance forecast of the company. The revenue from 2021 to 2023 is RMB 11.10/14.126/18.858 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 69.1% / + 28.3% / + 33.5%; From 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.232/1.523/2.171 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 96.2% / + 23.6% / + 42.5%. The corresponding EPS is 1.12/1.38/1.97 yuan and the corresponding PE is 48.74/39.43/27.66 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations; Chip shortage exceeded expectations
