Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) (601156)
Event: according to TAC data, the air freight price from Shanghai to North America in December 2021 was US $13.84/kg, a year-on-year increase of + 88.81%.
The policy adjustment of “changing customers to goods” superimposed the influence of Omicron, and the air freight price reached a new high, which was conducive to the improvement of the performance of the air logistics sector. Affected by the emergence of the new variant strain of covid-19, Omicron, the recovery of the belly cabin capacity of the international airliner is expected to continue to be delayed. Combined with the “passenger to cargo” adjustment of the National Civil Aviation Administration, the tense situation of air capacity will continue, and the international air freight price will reach a record high. In December 2021, the air freight price from Shanghai to North America was US $13.84/kg, a year-on-year increase of + 88.81%. We predict that the average air cargo price (Shanghai North America) in 2022 will be US $10.59/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 25%, showing a continuous upward trend.
Air carriers account for nearly 50% of the air cargo value chain, and the rise in air cargo prices Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) benefits greatly. The air cargo industry chain includes air cargo companies, freight forwarders, airport cargo terminals, ground logistics companies and other links. According to the research of Civil Aviation University of China, in the air cargo value chain, the departure Freight Forwarder accounts for 12.2%, the departure airport freight forwarder accounts for 7.3%, the air carrier accounts for 48.8%, the destination airport freight forwarder accounts for 7.3% and the destination freight forwarder accounts for 24.4%. We predict that benefiting from the continuous high operation of freight rates, the revenue of air express business in 2021e / 2022e / 2023e will reach RMB 11.934/15.307/18.844 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53% / 28% / 23%.
Cross border e-commerce logistics has high growth. The demand for high-end manufacturing and international fresh logistics has increased steadily. The company’s comprehensive logistics solution business has entered a long-term growth track. China’s cross-border e-commerce logistics industry has high growth and broad market space, and the demand for export and transportation of e-commerce products still has release power. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China’s cross-border e-commerce import and export increased by 20.1% in the first three quarters of 2021. At the same time, the demand for high-end manufacturing and international seafood cold chain has increased steadily, and the demand for aviation logistics has entered a long-term growth track. We predict that, benefiting from the catalytic impact of the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce logistics and the steady growth of international demand for fresh products, the revenue of comprehensive logistics business (including cross-border e-commerce logistics and origin direct business) in 2021e / 2022e / 2023e will reach RMB 6.638/10774 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 36% / 29% / 25%.
Investment suggestion: it is predicted that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.05, 2.47 and 2.73 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 10 times, 8 times and 7 times. For the first coverage, give a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of falling air freight prices, the risk that cross-border e-commerce logistics demand is less than expected, and the risk of changes in air freight policies.
