Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) (000513)
Aipu needle has successfully renewed its contract, the future performance is stable and can grow for a long time, and the H-share repurchase shows confidence. On December 3, the medical insurance bureau issued a new version of the medical insurance catalogue, and the company’s key product iprazole sodium for injection continued to be included in the medical insurance catalogue through negotiation; On December 6, the company announced the implementation of H-share repurchase.
The successful renewal of medical insurance contract of iprazole sodium for injection laid a foundation for the steady growth of follow-up performance. According to the results of health care negotiations in 2021, The medical insurance payment standard for the renewal of medical insurance contract of iprazole sodium for injection is 71 yuan (10mg / piece), a decrease of 54% compared with the previous payment price. The indication is peptic ulcer bleeding. Iprazole sodium for injection was approved for production in January 2018 and was first included in the 2019 Edition of medical insurance catalogue through negotiation in November 2019 。 As the company’s topline variety, iprazole contributes strong revenue to the company and will continue to increase in volume in the future; Compared with the first generation products, it has the advantages of long acid inhibition time, small individual difference and less drug interaction; After the price reduction of Aipu needle, the pharmacoeconomic value is more significant and patients benefit more. For the current market share of standard iprazole oral dosage form, it is expected that the follow-up market potential of iprazole needle is huge.
The repurchase of Hong Kong shares fully demonstrates the company’s confidence. On December 6, the Company repurchased 2655500 H shares, accounting for 0.85% of the total issued H shares of the company and about 0.28% of the total shares of the company. The highest price is HK $26.65/share, the lowest price is HK $24.70/share, and the total payment capital is HK $67.25 million. Recently, the overall performance of Hong Kong stocks has been poor. The company bought back shares in time, which not only plays a role in maintaining the stock price, safeguarding the interests of shareholders and stabilizing investor confidence, but also fully demonstrates the company’s confidence in the future.
The company’s R & D is accelerated, the company’s microsphere and monoclonal antibody varieties are uncertain, and the vaccine will provide additional performance flexibility.
A total of 7 projects are under research in the field of biological drugs. Recombinant human gonadotropin for injection has been approved for marketing, focusing on promoting varieties of recombinant covid-19 virus fusion protein vaccine (phase III of global multicenter has been launched), IL-6R (biosimilar, which has been reported for production and is expected to compete for the first), PD-1 (clinical research is carried out in China and the United States at the same time), and recombinant tumor enzyme specific interferon for injection α – 2B Fc fusion protein (phase I clinical), recombinant anti-human IL-17A / F humanized monoclonal antibody are in phase Ib / II; recombinant human follicle stimulating clinical trial is approved. In terms of complex preparations, microspheres are accelerated (several varieties are the first in China), and key varieties include triptorelin for 1 month (NDA has been accepted), aripiprazole microspheres for 1 month (phase I) and liangbing for 3 months (phase I is completed and phase III is actively prepared); octreotide for 1 month (be has been carried out) and triptorelin dihydroxynaphthalate for 3 months (clinically approved).
Profit forecast and valuation. We believe that the company has high performance growth certainty and low valuation, and the long-term layout of biological medicine + microspheres is in line with the industrial direction. Based on the company’s excellent management, sales team, monoclonal antibody platform, microsphere platform, etc., the company’s long-term investment value is prominent. Regardless of the elasticity of covid-19 vaccine, we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.97 billion yuan, 2.374 billion yuan and 2.782 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 14.9%, 20.5% and 17.2% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 17x, 14x and 12x respectively. After deducting incentive fees, the actual performance growth rate is higher. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: industry policy change risk, product price reduction risk, new drug R & D risk, covid-19 epidemic normalization impact, raw material supply and price fluctuation risk
