Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723)
Coke business is growing rapidly, and the whole hydrogen energy industry chain is extended. Coverage for the first time, with a "buy" rating
As a leading coke enterprise, the company has formed a complete industrial chain layout of "coal coke gas chemical hydrogen". In the first three quarters of 2021, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry, the profitability of the main coking industry increased significantly. The company's new coking projects will be put into operation in the future. In addition, relying on the main coking industry, the company will comprehensively layout the hydrogen energy industry chain and help the company's performance to a new level. We predict that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.712/2839/4835 billion in 2021 / 2022 / 2023; EPS of the company is 0.64, 0.66 and 1.13 yuan respectively; The current share price corresponding to PE is 24.9, 23.7 and 13.9 times. The newly arranged hydrogen energy industry is in the business growth period. Under the background of "carbon neutralization", hydrogen energy is a clean energy encouraged by national policies. It is expected that the top-level design document of national hydrogen energy planning will be issued soon, and its future growth space is optimistic. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Main coking industry: the optimization of supply pattern leads to high prosperity of the industry, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price releases the performance elasticity
The company's coking production capacity is 7.15 million tons / year, and the equity production capacity is 6.475 million tons / year. The scale of A-share company is second only to Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) . The company actively responds to national policies and replaces its backward production capacity, which will not be affected by environmental protection and production restriction. Huasheng Chemical, a new coking project, has been fully put into operation and can produce top loaded coke of scarce varieties. The price is not only higher than that of ordinary coke, but also the production cost has been effectively reduced. Meanwhile, the company has newly built Inner Mongolia project and Tanggang Meijin phase II project, with a capacity under construction of 7.3 million tons / year. After completion, the total coking capacity will reach 14.45 million tons / year, which is in an absolutely leading position in the industry. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the capacity reduction was deepened, the supply pattern of the coking industry was continuously optimized, and the coke price center rose. With the decline of coking coal price, the cost pressure of coking enterprises is reduced and the profitability is improved. With the rapid growth of capacity scale, the company's main coking business performance can be expected.
New energy business: the hydrogen energy industry chain is fully distributed, with broad growth space in the future, bringing new performance growth points
Relying on the advantages of main coking industry, the company arranges the whole hydrogen energy industry chain. Upstream: hydrogen with low cost can be produced by taking advantage of the scale advantage of the main coking industry, and the terminal price has great competitive advantage, which will promote the construction of more hydrogenation stations in the future. Midstream: (1) participation in Hongji Chuang Neng: China's first low-cost and high-performance membrane electrode production line has been built, with a design capacity of 300000 square meters / year. In addition, a capacity expansion of 5 million pieces / year has been carried out. The production line completely uses domestic equipment and is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2021. The existing 10 vehicles using Hongji membrane electrodes are listed in the catalogue of the Ministry of industry and information technology. After the new production capacity is put into operation in the future, the cost is expected to be further reduced. With the improvement of downstream demand, the sales volume is expected to be released and the market share will be further improved. (2) Participation in Guohong hydrogen energy: it has independently developed Hongxin, Hongtu and other series of fuel cell systems, with excellent comprehensive performance and various indicators reaching the international leading level. Guohong has the largest integrated production line in the world, and 90% of the production equipment is domestic. The pricing of Hongxin G1 reactor is the first low in the market and seizes the market share in China. Downstream: Feichi Technology: the development remains stable, the product categories expand to heavy trucks, enter the new blue ocean market, and it is expected to complete 2000 car orders in 2021. The company plans to split Feichi technology and list it on the gem independently, so as to broaden financing channels and reduce dependence on the company's funds, while improving the overall market value of the company.
Risk tip: economic growth is lower than expected; Risk of falling coke price; New energy projects are not progressing as expected
