Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co.Ltd(603809) (603809)
Key investment points
The company grew steadily in the first three quarters. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.065 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 176 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. Q3 single quarter revenue was 335 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 46 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%.
Complete the acquisition of haoyiqiang and define two major fields and three business lines. By investing in the differential project and completing the acquisition of all shares of haoyiqiang, the company has created the layout of two major parts fields of automobile + aviation and three business lines of synchronizer + differential + aviation sheet metal. As the core business of the company, the synchronizer business has been dragged down by the rising price of raw materials and the lack of core in car enterprises, but the company has taken the income of Qingzhu machinery, the largest upstream blank supplier, and successfully entered the heavy truck AMT industrial chain to obtain the downstream incremental market, which can ensure the basic stability of the company.
Cut into the heavy truck AMT industrial chain and seize the initial stage of the industry. AMT technology is mature, the price decreases, and the optimization of shift logic brings advantages in fuel consumption and exhaust gas treatment. With the promotion of electrification and intelligence of commercial vehicles, it gradually gains market recognition. The sales volume of AMT heavy trucks in China will suddenly increase from about 8000 in 2019 to more than 48000 in 2020, which is expected to continue to increase in 2021. In the long run, the current AMT penetration rate of heavy trucks in China is only about 3%, It is far from Europe (90%) and the United States (85%) and has abundant market space. The company is the exclusive synchronizer supplier of ZF Chuansheng AMT in China and the R & D and production partner of fast and heavy truck AMT. The heavy truck AMT project with an investment of 150 million yuan has mass production capacity, and the superimposed demand for high-value products will help the growth of future performance.
Differential business has made many breakthroughs. The differential independently designed by the company has become the exclusive supply of polar krypton 001, which shows that the company has met the commercialization requirements in both differential design and production. The planned capacity of 10 million differential assemblies is expected to be put into operation in 2025. The construction of differential shell, gear and other production lines has been steadily promoted, and many important customer orders have been obtained, It will become a new growth point of the company's auto parts business.
Aviation business is booming and plans to enter aerospace parts. Thanks to the development of the national defense industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period, haoyiqiang, a subsidiary, obtained several orders from Chengdu airlines, and its revenue increased by 125.46% in the first three quarters. The plant in Chengdu Economic Development Zone has been put into operation, the transformation of the original plant equipment has been completed, and the production capacity has been greatly improved. The company also plans to enter the aerospace core single machine industrial chain such as high-end valves, pipelines and connectors, and strengthen the layout of automobile + aviation wings.
Investment suggestion: give the company "overweight" rating for the first time. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.21/1.55/1.94 yuan respectively, corresponding to 17.0/13.3/10.7 times of PE. The company is a leading enterprise of synchronizer gear ring in China. The differential and aviation business have developed smoothly, and other businesses such as clutch and rail transit products have made breakthroughs. The peak of capital expenditure of the company is coming to an end, and the production capacity begins to be realized. The company was rated as "overweight" for the first time.
Risk warning: the promotion of new business is not as expected; The cost of raw materials has risen.
