Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the production and sales express in November: the company achieved the production and sales of 233855 and 224136 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.16% and 2.98%. The comments are as follows:
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) in November, the monthly production and sales reached a record high, with production and sales increasing by 21.4% and 16.2% respectively compared with October. This is caused by the rapid recovery of production and sales of the joint venture (Liangtian) and the continuous hot sales of the popular models of the independent (GAC AEAN). The specific analysis is as follows:
The sales volume of Liangtian recovered rapidly: in November, GAC Toyota achieved production and sales of 84826 vehicles and 85000 vehicles respectively, hitting a new high in a single month, and the sales volume is a new high since February this year. The rapid recovery of sales shows Toyota’s rapid response to chip shortage. According to Toyota’s global official website, Toyota’s global production plan in December will reach 800000, Higher than global production in December 2020 (760000 vehicles) and maintain the output forecast of 9 million units in this fiscal year. We believe that Toyota has basically overcome the impact of chip shortage. GAC Honda achieved production and sales of 87632 and 77709 vehicles respectively in November, with a month-on-month increase of 18.3% and 3%. The output of guangben is better than sales, and the impact of chip factor is also alleviated. Among them, the main B-class model accord exceeds 25000 in a single month Vehicles, the highest in recent years. We still believe that the impact of chips on Liangtian is a short-term factor. After 2022, the launch of many competitive new products and new production capacity in Liangtian will be the key to support their medium and long-term growth.
The total monthly sales volume of GAC has exceeded 50000, and the inflection point of GAC’s independent plate has been established: in terms of GAC motor, the production and sales in November were 35161 and 35572 respectively. From January 2021 to November 2021, GAC motor sold 292000 vehicles, 11.3% year-on-year. Shadow leopard sold more than 10000 in November and realized more than 10000 in two months. The new second generation gs8 will be officially launched in December. In terms of Ethiopia and Angola, the production and sales in November were 15134 and 15035 respectively. From January to November 2021, 105000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 102.26%. In 2022, gac-e’an will add 100000 capacity, which is expected to alleviate the current high capacity utilization.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: the production and marketing in November is the result of the joint efforts of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) joint venture and independent sectors. After 2022, we believe that the joint venture sector of the company will enter the stage of growth acceleration, and the independent sector will also enter the stage of substantive change. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term development prospects of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 7.27 billion yuan, 12.89 billion yuan and 15.75 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.70, 1.25 and 1.52 yuan. According to the closing prices of a and h on December 8, 2021, the PE of GAC A-Shares are 23, 13 and 10 times respectively, and the PE of GAC H shares are 9, 5 and 4 times respectively, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating of GAC A and GAC H shares.
Risk tip: the industry demand is low, the company’s new models are less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
