Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in November 2021: in November, the wholesale sales volume was 123000, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.7% and a month on month increase of + 9.32%; From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 1119000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 16.3%.
In terms of brands, the wholesale sales volume of Haval brand was 69200 in November, with a year-on-year increase of - 32.06% and a month on month increase of + 10.51%; The wholesale sales volume of wey brand was 6300 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 31.09% and a month on month increase of + 7.38%; The wholesale sales volume of Euler brand was 16100, with a year-on-year increase of + 39.2% and a month on month increase of + 21.92%; The wholesale sales volume of pickup trucks was 20800, with a year-on-year increase of - 7.96% and a month on month increase of + 1.83%; The wholesale sales volume of tank brand was 10100, a month on month increase of + 1.59%.
Analysis and judgment:
Lack of core alleviates production exceeding sales, and PHEV can be listed in the future
The core shortage eased and the sales volume increased steadily month on month. In November, the company sold 122510 vehicles, an increase of 9.32% month on month, and produced 124516 vehicles, an increase of 12.30% month on month. The output exceeded the sales volume for the first time since the core shortage in July. The sales volume of the company's five core brands improved month on month. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of Euler brand increased by 21.92% month on month, and the wholesale sales volume of Harvard brand increased by 10.51% month on month, leading the growth rate. Specifically,
Haval brand: in November, the sales volume was 69170, with a month on month increase of 10.51%. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume was 675621, with a year-on-year increase of 4.79%. Among them, 32443 Haval H6 vehicles were sold in June, an increase of 18.66% month on month, achieving a high growth. With the launch of new platform models such as Haval h6s (the first sedan SUV of lemon platform + coffee intelligent platform) and Haval beast (the flagship SUV of new technology), it is expected to enhance the existing product matrix composed of models such as first love, big dog and red rabbit, and realize the significant improvement of the comprehensive product power of Haval brand.
Euler brand: the sales volume in November was 16136, with a strong increase of 21.92% month on month. We judge that it is mainly due to the alleviation of core shortage. Although the month on month growth rate was less, the sales volume of high-end model "good cat" in November was 8855, with a month on month growth of 12.9%, a record high, effectively driving the brand ASP and profit level. In addition, during the Guangzhou auto show, orapin (Euler powder) and the "Princess favor program - women's creation and enjoyment official acceleration camp" were officially released to further improve the user operation ability of Euler brand.
Tank brand: 10108 tanks were delivered in November, an increase of 1.59% month on month, a new high in monthly delivery, and 72630 tanks were delivered from January to November. At the same time, the pre-sale of tank 500 was officially opened at Guangzhou auto show, There were more than 22000 valid pre-sale orders on the first day of pre-sale (November 19), and more than 27000 valid pre-sale orders in November. Considering the high-end pricing of 335000 ~ 395000 new cars, the pre-sale performance exceeded the market expectation. In the same period, the tank brand direct partnership channel 3.0 model officially landed in Guangzhou, which may further enhance the tank brand's perception of consumers and the rapid improvement of service ability.
Wey brand: 6286 vehicles were sold in November, a month on month increase of 7.38%, and 48298 vehicles were sold from January to November. On November 17, Wei brand macchido dhtphev was officially listed. After subsidy, the price was 1668 ~ 177800 yuan, and the landing price was about 4000 yuan higher than that of HEV version. The new PHEV power platform has excellent power performance in the same type of products, with a loss point fuel consumption of 4.4l/100km, a pure electric endurance of up to 110km and a endurance of more than 1000km in the state of full oil and full power, and its comprehensive performance in terms of purchase, use, maintenance and second-hand replacement is better than that of fuel, pure electric and strong hybrid models of the same level. It is expected that other models of wey brand will be fully equipped in the future, And effectively drive sales.
Great Wall pickup truck: 20810 vehicles were sold in November, with a month on month increase of 1.83%. From January to November, 207973 vehicles were sold worldwide, which remained stable as a whole. Among them, 12807 Great Wall guns were sold in November, a month on month increase of 1.20%. At the same time, at the Guangzhou auto show, the company also released China's first super running pickup concept car, fashionable commercial pickup diamond gun and other products, improved the brand matrix and promoted the continuous progress of the brand towards high-end.
Salon brand's initial pre-sale in overseas market
Salon Zhixing, a new independent auto company incubated by Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , also officially appeared at the 2021 Guangzhou auto show, and launched the "mecha technology category" and the first high-performance mecha and running machine Jialong. At the auto show, the global limited edition of mechatron was opened for pre-sale, and 101 Global Limited Edition were booked and sold out in 3 hours. The first batch of car owners will enjoy four extreme performance packages and lifelong free high-level intelligent driving assistance rights. In addition to the power, the new car can achieve 100 km acceleration of 3.7s, it is also extremely rich in intelligent configuration. The whole car is equipped with 38 sensing elements including 4 lidars, which can realize 5-weight 360 ° no dead angle coverage, with a minimum detection distance of no less than 500 meters. It also creates a dual mcd610 auxiliary computing architecture, with a combined computing power of 400tops (NPU).
Overseas, the company holds high and occupies the high-end market with advanced technology. In the Thai market, following Euler cat and Haval h6hev, the company has newly launched Haval jolionhev, with a market guide price of 879000-999000 baht, about 166400-189100 yuan, covering multiple medium and high-end segments of class C SUV, class B SUV and Bev cars. At the same time, at the 38th Thailand International Automobile Expo, the company also released two new energy models, Haval h6phev and tank 500hev. With the support of PHEV and p2hev power system of 2.0gdit + 9hat, the company will reduce the dimension of benchmarking products in overseas markets on the technical path and stabilize the high-end brand image.
Investment advice
The promotion of the company's new products outside China is progressing smoothly, the new cycle of intelligent electrification has been opened, the proportion of new energy intelligent models has increased rapidly, the leading position of luxury has become clearer, and the non vehicle business income is expected to accelerate the release. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 142.05/167.33/186.07 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 105.2/137.3/16.51 billion yuan, EPS is 1.14/1.49/1.79 yuan (diluted circulation of equity incentive restricted shares), corresponding to the closing price of 55.9 yuan / share on December 7, 2021, and PE is 49 / 38 / 31 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
The impact of core failure exceeds expectations; Downside risk of auto market; The market competition of wey, salon, Haval and other brands intensifies, and the sales volume is lower than expected; The progress of going to sea was not as expected.
