Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104)
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in November: the monthly output was 605000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.22% and a month on month increase of + 5.82%. The monthly wholesale sales volume was 601000, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.61% and a month on month increase of + 3.30%. From January to November, the cumulative output was 4.803 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 0.06%, and the cumulative sales volume was 4.803 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 1.06%.
Analysis and judgment
The lack of core was accelerated and alleviated, and the joint venture new cars continued to sell well
Production and sales increased month on month, and joint venture new cars gradually developed. The overall output of the company in November was higher than the sales volume of 4018 vehicles, and the output was higher than the sales volume for the first time since the tight chip supply in April, indicating that the problem of core shortage has been gradually alleviated. Specifically:
1) Independent brands grew steadily. SAIC sold 100000 passenger vehicles in November, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.98% and a month on month increase of + 0.09% (the output was 103000, with a month on month increase of + 6.67%). This year, the cumulative sales volume was 695000, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.45%, maintaining a high-speed growth, mainly due to the continuous hot sales and monthly sales of its Roewe rx5, i5, mgzs, MG5 and other popular models.
2) The product power of the joint venture new car has gradually been demonstrated, and the sales volume of Hongguang MINI has reached a new high,. SAIC Volkswagen sold 135000 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of – 16.46%, The month on month ratio was + 12.50% (the output was 136000 vehicles, month on month ratio was + 17.08%), and the cumulative sales volume of this year was 1105400 vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year ratio of – 17.99%. The main reason was that, as we had expected, the new generation Tiguan L, Passat and other main models continued to sell well after listing, and the monthly sales exceeded 15000. SAIC GM sold 166000 vehicles in November, with a year-on-year ratio of – 17.46%, month on month ratio of + 3.80% (the output was 132000 units, a month on month increase of + 1.45%). The cumulative sales volume of this year was 1171000 units, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 8.06%. The sales volume was greater than the output. We judged that it was mainly due to the influx of competitors of old models such as GL8, the increase of promotion impulse, and the hot sale of new models such as Weilang pro. SAIC GM Wuling’s wholesale sales volume in November was 193000 units, and the output in that month was 196000 units, a month on month increase of – 3.50%. The production and sales remained stable 。 We judge that it is mainly due to the decline in the sales of Baojun 530 cleared last month, but the continuous hot sales of Hongguang mini (more than 45000 vehicles sold in November) and Wuling Xingchen (more than 15000 vehicles sold in November).
New energy boosts ASPID 3. Accelerate climbing
New energy continued to sell well, and Id family performed well: SAIC new energy vehicles produced and sold 8.2/83000 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of + 43.5% / 45.6%. Among them, medium and high-end new energy models such as mghs plug-in hybrid, mgzsev, erx5 and ei6 of SAIC passenger car company account for the main sales contribution. Driven by the id.3 car series listed on October 22, the overall sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen Id family has exceeded 8000 and reached a new level. It is expected to exceed 10000 in December. Id.3 as the top selling brand of electric vehicles in Europe, the selling price in China is RMB 159800 ~ 173800. The appearance carries the new technology and fashionable design language of Id family, such as the front face through LED light band, the lighting brand logo and IQ on both sides Light matrix headlamp group, etc. The power performance is outstanding. It takes only 7.1 seconds to accelerate 100 kilometers. It is a rear drive, which is more fun to drive. It is expected that the subsequent production and sales are expected to accelerate the climbing.
Investment advice
Facing the force majeure of industrial core shortage, the company actively deepened its internal skills, comprehensively optimized its organizational strength and product strength, and accelerated its transformation from the perspective of user operation and experience strategy. The company has solid underlying technology and excellent platform capability. With the gradual improvement of chip supply, the company is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of independent + joint venture two wheel drive, and the leader of passenger cars will return. At present, the company is at the historical bottom of earnings and valuation, and we maintain the earnings forecast: it is expected that the company’s revenue in 2021-23 will be 8302 / 8693 / 903.8 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 289 / 331 / 37.9 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 2.47/2.83/3.24 yuan, with the closing price of 20.86 yuan on December 7, corresponding to pe8.00 yuan per share 5 / 7.4 / 6.4x, corresponding to pb0 8 / 0.8 / 0.7x. Give the company 1.2 times Pb in 2021, keep the target price unchanged at 28.79 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk statement
The influence of core loss continues; Downside risk of auto market; Joint venture brand downside risk; The landing of new electric intelligent models is not as expected; Overseas expansion was less than expected.
